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COFES 2011
April 14-17, 2011
Scottsdale, Arizona
The Scottsdale Plaza Resort

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COFES Blog
Author: Joel Orr Created: 4/15/2006
Joel thinks about and comments on all kinds of stuff

Life goes by so fast! COFES 2008 was, well, outstanding - even more the prior ones, each of which outdid the ones before. But so much keeps going on! There is hardly time for thought, let alone reflection; stuff keeps happening too quickly for me to make sense of.We're doing a much better job of posting stuff quickly; explore this site, and you will find recordings, videos, and some comments on what went on at COFES, with more to come - hopefully, before it's all old hat...What do we do about this phenomenon that signal processing geeks call 'aliasing' - the challenges of representing a high-frequency set of events in a low-frequency medium. Stuff is pouring in as I sit here, and there is no way I can assimilate it all, let alone its implications. I can't even begin to assimilate the ruminations of gurus who are quick to analyze and summarize - and I certainly don't have time to think about how good those analyses are...I know I'm preaching to the converted here. You have told me, at COFES and elsewhere, that...

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I'm sitting in this wonderful conference, full of ideas from all the many powerful presentations I've experienced so far, and the people I've met - and I find myself actually distressed that the slides and more are not already online -- nor is there any indication that they will be! What does that say about us leading-edge scouts? Here's some text from the event site: In a not-too-distant future, the computing platform of choice for a significant number of consumers will be a hand-held device. Signs of this trend are already apparent in Asia and Scandinavia, and all indicators suggest that this evolution transforms the lives and work of individuals in ways that are both chaotic and enriching. Given the diversity of global communications mechanisms, how can network operators, software vendors, and handset providers accelerate this evolution? The Mobile Future brings together experts from industry and the research community to share and discuss their visions of possible futures, along with technology and business...

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3D Systems, the company that coined "stereolithography," has just announced a printer for less than $10,000.

When the Apple Laserwriter came out in 1985, it cost $7,000 - and opened the era of "desktop publishing." Of course it's not the same thing, but perhaps there are some interesting parallels for us to think about.

At the very least, it will be something of a test of the assumptions of those like Dassault CEO Bernard Charles, who believe that 3D is a universal communication language. Simple CAD puts 3D modeling within reach of all; now this printer puts 3D "hard copy" within reach of many. I'm curious to see what will happen!

On Dave Gurteen's knowledge management blog, a fascinating take on the "2.0" meme:I recently spent the whole of January in SE Asia; giving talks and running knowledge cafes in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. As always I learnt as much as a I taught at these events.Most of us understand what Web 2.0 is all about as we move from a read-only web to a read-write or participatory web.And we are starting to come to grips with so called Enterprise 2.0 where the concept and technologies and social tools of Web 2.0 are moving from the open web into organizations.It is still early days and there are many issues to be grappled with as we try to balance the structure and stability of the old world with the more fluid and complex nature of the new.But the "2.0 meme" is starting to affect everything. In a talk in Kuala Lumpur I was asked how you implement Enterprise 2.0 and I was talking about some of the barriers when someone spoke up and said "We will never have Enterprise 2.0 until we have Managers 2.0!”...

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Amazing how even the most scientifically-minded become advocates of causes whose scientific basis still holds many open questions. There are systemic reasons for this, and they are not new, and I am very far from the first to point this out. I'm reading an anthology of editorials from Analog (formerly Astounding) Science Fiction magazine, written in the forties, fifties, and sixties, by John W. Campbell. He has much to say about the institutional need to quash alternatives--in medicine, very notably, but also in all sciences.The referenced article below points out that there is a lot of emotion behind climate issues today--but that the implications of the questionable conclusions hold regardless. This is from the American Society for Engineering Educators.Canadian editorial criticizes climate "hysterics."In a signed editorial for Canada's Daily Observer (3/20), columnist Lorrie Goldstein wrote that "[g]lobal warming is the gift...

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Spolsky is a software entrepreneur in New York. His blog, "Joel on Software," is enormously popular for the wisdom and down-to-earth strength of his writing.

He now writes a monthly piece for "Inc."; this article is on the power of "impossible" ideas. Worth checking out.

Autodesk held its World Press Days in San Francisco earlier this week. The bottom line: Autodesk is focusing on helping customers integrate all the product lines where it makes sense. The use of REVIT for facilities, integrated with the use of Inventor for the machines that get placed in the facilities, along with Civil 3D for the site - you get the idea.Running throughout the presentations was the thread of sustainability. Green designs were featured, and environmental impact considered in each case study.CEO Carl Bass kicked off the event, and was accessible throughout. There is the clear sense that the company is blossoming with an engineer at the helm.Autodesk's digital prototyping message was prominent, and several speakers went into some depth to explain that this approach to the automation of design is well-thought-out, and is sound both philosophically and organizationally.The firm now has a Plant division and corresponding products. Integrating many pieces they already own, and some that are coming, this...

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That's a phrase I heard in the framework of the Hoffman Process - a methodology for finding out things that are keeping you from being who you really are, and taking action to get them out of the way. But that's not with this post is about.I read recently - it may have been in an ASEE (American Society of Engineering Educators) mailing - that most people have determined whether they will pursue a career in engineering or science by the end of the 8th grade. And the decision hinges on how they feel about math.I've also read recently that the number of young people choosing engineering, science, and technology professions in the US is declining.The ability to do math is a filter for getting into good engineering and science schools. On the surface, that seems reasonable: Math is the language of precision, and its abstractive tools provide access to the reasoning of the ages, as well as the ability to carry it on.And yet...My friend Ron Resch has made major contributions to diverse areas of science...

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When David Weinberger spoke at COFES 2005, his topic was "Everything is Miscellaneous." Now his book of that name is out, and it is fascinating. The implications for the engineering software business are worth thinking about.Here's an essay Weinberger wrote for Amazon.com called, "The Flocking of Information":As businesses go miscellaneous, information gets chopped into smaller and smaller pieces. But it also escapes its leash--adding to a pile that can be sorted and arranged by anyone with a Web browser and a Net connection. In fact, information exhibits bird-like "flocking behavior," joining with other information that adds value to it, creating swarms that help customers and, ultimately, the businesses from which the information initially escaped. For example, Wize.com is a customer review site founded in 2005 by entrepreneur Doug Baker. The site provides reviews for everything from computers and MP3 players...

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Kudos to SolidWorks for a program full of fascinating speakers of interest to engineers as engineers, as designers, as people. And none of them plugged SolidWorks.

Today's speaker was Dean Kamen, inventor, entrepreneur, and founder of FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology). Dean's vision: “ …to create a world where science and technology are celebrated….  where young people dream of becoming science and technology heroes….”

The purpose of FIRST is to inspire young people’s interest and participation in science and technology. Based in Manchester, N.H., it designs accessible, innovative programs to build self-confidence, knowledge, and life skills while motivating young people to pursue opportunities in science, technology, engineering, and math.

FIRST provides two well-known programs, the FIRST Robotics Competition (FRC) for high-school students and FIRST LEGO® League (FLL) for 9 to 14 year-olds. FIRST also offers the Junior FIRST LEGO League (JFLL) for 6- to 9-year-olds and the FIRST Tech Challenge (FTC), an intermediate robotics competition that offers high-school-aged students the traditional challenge of FRC, but with a more accessible and affordable robotics kit. FIRST also operates a research and development facility called FIRST Place at its headquarters.

...

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When Don Tapscott's "Wikinomics" came out over a year ago, I was turned off by the title, so I never picked it up. A couple of days ago, I went to hear Tapscott give a breakfast talk at Stanford. It was very worthwhile. (It is co-authored by Tapscott's colleague, Anthony Williams.)

The book was Amazon.com's top-selling business book of 2007. Its subtitle is "How mass collaboration changes everything" - and it is accurate, if not inspiring.

Unfortunately, the book has none of Tapscott's excellent charts and graphics, showing the dramatic changes wrought by mass collaboration; you have to get it from the words. But it is good, readable business prose, full of case studies and meaty stuff.

He based it on a $9 million research project; this is not a rehashed web sweep.

And the book goes on: At www.wikinomics.com, you can participate in creating the "next chapter" and read an excerpt from the book. There is also a blog and a wiki.

From Ralph Grabowski's upFront eZine:

Research and Markets finds that high-end MCAD is in its death spiral, at least in Europe: "The mid range segment, that has already clearly overrun the value of the High-end segment, representing more than half of the whole MCAD market, is growing at +20% annually, leaving behind the high-end segment with an annual decrease of 5%." The details'll cost you e1950 (about US$2,900) at this site.

Cyon Research's white paper examining the structure of the MCAD market has other thoughts about what used to be called "high-end" MCAD, and it's free.

(It's the second summit, not the second singularity.) The singularity is the putative "tipping point" that will occur when the combination of computers and networks get really smart and gain consciousness - whatever that means. The general assumption is that the processes leading to the singularity will include software that modifies and improves itself, and the general consensus is that this will be a development of the area of computation known as "artificial intelligence," or ai.Now, ai, in its early incarnations, offered such things as "expert systems," "chess programs," "theorem solving," and other stuff that turned out to be difficult to commercialize. Its development continues, but for investors - and hence for startups - we've had an "ai winter" for the last couple of decades or so. To distinguish the magic that could lead to the singularity from that older stuff, proponents are using the term, "artificial general intelligence," or agi.The conference was impressive in terms of intellectual content, sponsors,...

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Jerry Laiserin, a highly regarded AEC automation consultant, architect, and friend of mine, is taking over the "AEC in Focus" column at CADALYST. That's good news for CADALYST and its readers; Jerry's writing is clear, incisive, and authoritative.

Being around for a long time doesn't necessarily mean you've gotten better at what you do--but in Jerry's case, it does. His wisdom and insights have grown with the length and breadth of his experience. Having heard him speak many times, I've found that he always has something new to say, a fresh angle on the world of AEC automation.

Jerry is a leading proponent of BIM - building information modeling - and it will be interesting to read his views on this and other topics monthly.

Congratulations to Jerry and to CADALYST on this new arrangement!

Do you ever leave yourself a phone message to remind yourself of something? Well, you can now leave a voice message - and have it converted into a text email, while still retaining the recording. Go to Jott.com, and sign up for free. Then call Jott from any number you register with them, and leave yourself a message of up to 30 seconds. In moments, it will be in your inbox - text AND voice.

How good is the transcription? Pretty good. With the voice recording to back it up, it's good enough for me.

If you try it, let me know what you think of it.

PLM - product lifecycle management - has taken on something of a "fightin' words" character. Dassault and Siemens are promoting it wholeheartedly. Autodesk says it's not real. Smaller companies like Arena Solutions are happy to ride the wave, such as it is.Some years ago, when the abbreviation (it's not an acronym; acronyms are pronounceable) was introduced, there was a lot of buzz in the industry about defining PLM. Nothing was ever resolved, so when someone says "PLM" today, you better ask what exactly they mean.But PLM is clearly something - even if we don't agree on exactly what.End-to-end digital representation of engineering and manufacturing data? CAD + PDM + CAM + ERP + TQM + KBE?As far as I can tell, those resisting the term seem to be saying, "It's too much to go from today's partly-automated, unintegrated manufacturing enterprises to something as comprehensive as PLM. Nobody has really done it. So why not take the smaller steps that are really required, without glorifying the whole process?"Those promoting...

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I'm in Israel right now, on my honeymoon. It's hard to find Israeli engineering technology. No, wait, I don't mean it that way; there is a lot of engineering software coming from this tiny country. There are names you'll recognize right away - Cimatron, Smarteam - and others with which you may not be familiar, such as Amdocs and Yedda.com, neither of which is particularly engineering-oriented, but both of which have products working in engineering firms worldwide.No, what I mean is that these firms are so cool, so savvy, so web, that the fact of their being Israeli elicits no more than "so what?"High tech is burgeoning in Israel. The country has cracked the marketing code. You may find out that many applications you use regularly are Israeli under the skin. Of course, many do not advertise that fact; anti-semitism is alive and well in the world today.But if you are looking for a location for a development center, with easy access to talent - talent that is not as cheap as Indian or Russian, but not as expensive...

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A 24-year-old student in Kerala has come up with a way to encode data densely on paper:



Data Can Now Be Stored on PaperM. A. Siraj, Arab News   Sainul Abideen explains the features of his Rainbow Technology. (AN photo)   ...

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The COFES India Summit, held 11/17-18/06 at the Hyatt Regency Delhi, drew an impressive variety of leaders from Indian and US organizations. We are in the process of assembling all the video, audio, and session summaries, and they will soon be posted on the COFES site.For now, some interesting tidbits: India has a small number of world-class engineering schools, led by IIT; but they turn out only a few thousand graduates per year. There are many other engineering schools, but they are hamstrung by financial issues, keeping them from hiring the kind of faculty that would turn out the kind of graduates needed by the economy. In recent international reports on R&D spending by large firms, no Indian companies had measurable investments in R&D as a percentage of revenues. Infrastructure development in India is quite extensive, and stands to grow even more in coming years. India's population is growing rapidly, and will probably overtake China's in the near future. India and China, while highly...

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Yes, Rachael, everyone does know that loving shiny things is a guy thing. (By the way, that would be a 1956 Chevy, not a '52 - a dour, clunky box...:-))

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Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM VP, in "Always On" - http://www.alwayson-network.com/weblog.php

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COFES is a highlight of my year! Ever since we created COFES, back in the last century, this glorious get-together has been a major source of inspiration, networking, and empowerment in my life.
 
It has a been a major factor in encouraging several of my grandchildren to become engineers, for one thing.

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