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Forecasting Ansys’ growth

Aug 6

Written by: Steve Wolfe
8/6/2010 11:09 AM

Ansys reported year-to-year revenue growth of 12.9 percent in the quarter ended June 30, 2010. Restraints on expense growth boosted operating income by almost 28.8 percent and net by 31 percent. Compared with other companies in the engineering-software business, such as Dassault Systèmes and Parametric Technology, it was a strong performance.

But Ansys’ stock sells for much more than its larger rivals: nearly eight times annual revenue per share and more than 31 times 12-months trailing earnings. In contrast, PTC sells for less than 2.2 times annual revenues and 41 times trailing earnings. (PTC’s PE is high because its earnings have been depressed.) Dassault Systèmes sells for 3.2 times annual revenue and almost 21 times trailing earnings. Clearly investors are expecting higher growth rates from Ansys than its rivals.

Figure 1 - Ansys sales and profits continue their uptrends.
(Click image for a larger view.)

In the period from 2003 through 2008, Ansys revenue growth was fueled by two factors: growth in the market for the engineering software made by Ansys and the acquisition of smaller engineering-software companies. In the past 12 months, Ansys hasn’t made any acquisitions. Growth has come solely from demand for its existing software.

Like every other industrial product, demand for engineering software dropped with the recession that began in 2007. Earnings increases from Ansys, PTC, and Dassault Systèmes indicate that demand for this software is turning up with the economic recovery. Ansys growth of almost 13 percent year-to-year compares favorably with that of PTC (7 percent) and Dassault Systèmes (15 percent expressed in US dollars and negative 1 percent after adjusting for acquisitions). The bulk of Ansys’ growth came from software maintenance, up 45 percent. New paid-up license revenues rose a modest 5.2, percent and annual lease payments declined 0.7 percent. These growth rates are well below levels enjoyed during the past 5 years when Ansys shares rose from $18 to $45.

Figure 2 - Ansys' year-to-year revenue growth has slowed in recent quarters.
(Click image for a larger view.)

Ansys is a good company with strong cash flow from operations ($59.7 million in the quarter), modest debt, and a commanding share of its software market niche. But investors don’t see any of that cash. The company pays no dividends. Most cash has been used to buy back stock (which is then reissued at discounts to executives) or to purchase other software companies. Investors have benefited from the appreciation of Ansys stock. But will it continue to appreciate at the rate of the past five years if growth remains at levels consistent with the rest of the mechanical engineering software business?

Figure 3 - Ansys' strong cash flow may enable it to afford more acquisitions.
(Click image for a larger view.)

Figure 4 - Ansys sales remain evenly balanced between North America, Europe, and the rest of the world.

Figure 5 - Maintenance fees on paid-up licenses are the largest and fastest-growing sement of Ansys' sales.

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