 |
|
|
Riding the S curve
Location: Blogs Jack Ring |
 |
| Posted by: Jack Ring |
11/17/2008 |
| Most of us live in an environment of multiple, interacting factors, each exhibiting an S curve behavior. First phase exhibiting accelerating growth, curling upward. Second phase of approximately constant growth. Third phase of decelerating growth. During the third phase a Phoenix often arises to start a new, upward, S curve.
Prof. Adizes, UCLA, provides an S-curve based model in "Corporate Life-cycles" Prof. Leontief adn others have modeled economic life cycles. Sometimes the new S curve gets started early. Sometimes the new curve doesn't kick in until the ramifications of the older S curve have been manifest in various negative or "things aren't what they used to be, who's fault is it?" ways.
Many people do not realize that the U.S. has been on a 25 year economic boom, the longest in history. They have simply become accustomed to the constant growth. Too many, not understanding systems, plan ahead as if there is some guarantee of growth. When the S curve starts to bend over (negative acceleration)the first reaction is naievty, then denial, then outrage, then fault finding, etc.
We are seeing that in an economy that has been fueled by "irrational exuberence" for a decade. Too many of us are obsessed with assigning blame (shall we blame President Clinton Mount St. Helens erupting)? This obsession results in one new growth --- the volume of NY Times opinions and of consequent postings by the HCS (Henke Clipping Service) but these are not likely to reenergize the economy. Where is the next S curve when we need it? Is there a way to overconsume without becoming obese then having to diet? Can a new U.S. President "make it all better?" We elect candidates to represent our interests. Most simply do not understand systems, thus cannot foster beneficial S curves. Instead, most feed the Law of Unintended Consequences.
Perhaps the next S curve will be the expansion of the CAD industry to offer intellectual prosthetics that enable the design and viability assessment of systems as well as machines and structures. |
|
| Permalink |
Trackback |
Comments (2)
Add Comment
|
Re: Riding the S curve |
By HCS on
11/18/2008 |
The existence of a theory of S-curves to describe the world economy is debatable; what is not debatable is the extraordinary negative impact of unchecked greed, rampant deregulation and deep government deficits over the last eight years in the United States. |
|
|
Re: Riding the S curve |
By Jack Ring on
11/18/2008 |
If debatable, please cite positions for the pro and con sides.
Perhaps you mean questionable, as in "doesn't fit my opinion."
By "last eight years" are you claiming that these things never happened before AND were triggered solely by decisions since 2000?
If these caused the extraordinary negative impact then specifically what was impacted? Could it have been one or more economic factors? In what way did the impact affect the factor? Could it have been by modifying the S curve characteristic function of that factor?
|
|
|
|
|
|