Agenda: Friday, April 2, 2004

Introductions and Breakfast

Sponsored by Fortune Magazine

Each COFES attendee from the user community is assigned a leading industry consultant who will act as their host for the event. The host's primary responsibility is to make sure that you get the most value possible out of the event and introduce you to key industry players. Plan to meet your host/“introducer” for breakfast.

Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits); shirts with collars; sandals or sneakers. Shorts are okay.

Kickoff: Opening Session and Call to Order

Your hosts, Cyon Research, will set the stage for the day's activities. The theme for COFES2004 is "'So long, and thanks for all the CAD' -- A revealing look at where we go from here." We'll set the stage for our exploration of seven developments that will have an impact on your company's future survival and success.

Keynote: John Koza



Genetic Programming: Software's Next Big Step

"Genetic programming now routinely delivers high-return human-competitive results," says Dr. John R. Koza, the inventor of genetic programming and consulting professor at Stanford University. He will substantiate this claim as he presents the main keynote at this year’s COFES.

"The success of genetic programming is no small thing," says Dr. Joel Orr, Cyon Research's Chief Visionary. "It means, as Koza demonstrates, that computers have the potential to become automated invention machines, and to revolutionize the way software is created."

Genetic programming is a systematic method for getting computers to automatically solve a problem. It starts from a high-level statement of what needs to be done and automatically creates a computer program to solve the problem. While this approach has already created dramatic results, the potential for our industry is enormous. Dr. Koza will explain exactly how genetic programming works, in terms meaningful to COFES attendees, and help them understand the effects it could have on the engineering software industry, the technology sectors, and the world we live in.

John Koza, Consulting Professor, Stanford University

Koza, a consulting professor at Stanford University, is the inventor of genetic programming – a method that allows automatic development of software to solve specific problems.

Koza is the author of four books on the subject, most recently “Genetic Programming IV: Routine Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence.” Since 1988, he has taught courses on genetic algorithms and genetic programming in the Biomedical Informatics Program in the Department of Medicine and Department of Electrical Engineering at Stanford University. He has served on both the Science Board and the Board of Trustees of the Santa Fe Institute and received his PhD in Computer Science from the University of Michigan in 1972.

Genetic Programming is the application of Darwinian evolution methods to software development. Using a problem-independent approach, a computer is able to take millions of possible solutions to a specific problem, and progressively evolve a population of programs over a series of generations. Eventually the process identifies the best solution to the problem.

“This process takes days or weeks as opposed to months spent now in development,” stated Joel Orr, Chief Visionary at Cyon Research, the hosts of COFES 2004. “It stands in my mind as a ‘tipping point’ for the software industry as a whole, as well as being critical for engineering software in particular. The vision, understanding, and sheer brilliance of John Koza are a matter of record. Yet his ability to describe genetic programming is so powerful and engaging, it is impossible not to grasp the importance of this invention after hearing him speak about it.”

“There are now 36 instances where genetic programming has automatically produced a computer program that is competitive with human performance,” states John Koza, consulting professor in the School of Engineering and the Department of Medicine, Stanford University. “In just a few years, we will see this technology having a profound effect upon the way software is developed, sustained, and supported.”


Technology Suite Briefings 

Our sponsors will present briefings on their advanced technology and research. Topics to be announced on site.


Analyst Briefings

We've invited some of the brightest and most talented analysts and thinkers to give brief presentations on issues they view as critical, with the remainder of each 40-minute session a working discussion. These discussions are strictly limited to no more than 24 people at a time. 


Kristine Fallon
Kristine Fallon Associates

Architecture, Engineering, and Construction


Dennis Nagy
Technology Business Consulting

Engineering Analysis and Simulation


Bruce Jenkins
SPAR Point Research

Digital-Physical Convergence
Integrating computer-based digital modeling with sensor-based digital capture of reality promises a leap forward in fidelity of IT-based product creation and built-asset engineering. 3D laser scanning is a breakthrough tool for capturing existing conditions of civil infrastructure, process plants and discrete manufacturing facilities, and for quality control of manufactured products. What new software technologies are required for data from laser scanning and other sensor-based measurement to inform design, production and construction?


Dave Albert
Albert Consulting Group

Barriers to Advancing Productivity


Ken Versprille
D.H. Brown

Driving Toward an Open PLM Framework
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) targets horizontal integration of disparate business and engineering silos in order to maximize the effectiveness of a manufacturer’s product development process at every stage of the product lifecycle — from concept to design, manufacturing, and ultimately product retirement. Achieving this cross-functional amalgamation depends heavily on the integration capabilities provided by an overall solution architecture that can maintain the integrity of information across an abundance of distinct vendor point solutions. This discussion will probe the requirements of one slice through PLM centering on CAD integration as a microcosm of the issues facing a reasonable PLM integration architecture in the areas of independence, integrated business processes, enterprise systems, custom integrations, and multi-tool deployment. At counter issue is finding the correct balance between an open solution architecture and the use of leading-edge proprietary capabilities.


 Ed Miller



Jack Ring
Innovation Management

Systems Thinking


Analyst Briefings

Analyst briefings, round 2, with different analysts, different topics.


Jerry Laiserin

Product, Process, and Knowledge Modeling in AEC


Dave Burdick
Collaborative Visions

The Business of Innovation


Jon Peddie
Jon Peddie Research

Graphics Systems


Marc Halpern

Navigating to PLM Excellence
Fortune 1000 manufacturers that have not launched a PLM strategy by 2007 will become noncompetitive. In fact, any emerging manufacturer should be thinking about PLM. This session will address how Gartner expects the PLM market to emerge over the next 5 - 10 years and the steps companies must take to be ready. Since performance metrics will play a major role to motivate the needed culture and process changes, we will explore criteria for adopting new metrics and the nature of metrics that companies should adopt.


Ray Kurland

Mechanical and Manufacturing


Joe Morray
Trinity Technologies

Plant and Process


Brian Seitz
Intellectual Arbitrage

The Future of Engineering and the Engineering Desktop
Years ago, engineers designed products, then as the industrial revolution came into being engineers designed pieces of product that fit together for a company to sell as a whole. Then modularization came into play and engineers were likely to both design and select parts to assemble into products. Now, in the age of information, engineers are spending more time integrating components into solutions that may themselves become part of larger deliverables. The age of systems has truly arrived—is it as an iceberg on the horizon of the economic landscape?

Are we prepared for the changes and their side effects?

Will design and engineering fade out of the realm of the engineer and move to the customer, who will create the design through web menus and design rule systems? Is the age of engineering as we know it fading away?


Sponsored by UGS PLM Solutions
Lunch Keynote

Joel Orr
Cyon Research

 Resonance and Rythym

Electrical engineers have it easy -- for them, theory and reality work in harmony. In a circuit, everything adds up; Kirchoff’s Laws actually work. Energy balances out neatly—and reality meekly follows theory.

But for those engaged in mechanical or AEC design, engineering, and manufacturing, life isn't so simple. Here, engineering is still more an art than science. The neat, everything-adds-up aspects of electrical engineering cannot be extended to the mechanical and structural domains—let alone to the conceptual aspects of architecture or software design.

Even so, the language of electrical physics provides a metaphorical framework of immense power and richness for thinking about other areas. The language of cycles, resonance, and rhythm can help us get a handle on the details of coupling. And coupling models transfer relationships—not just within and between devices, but also between people and equipment, and people and people. In particular, it is a good framework for thinking about human-interface issues.

Technology Suite Briefings 

Round 2 of briefings from COFES sponsors. Topics to be announced.

Analyst Briefings

Analyst briefings, round 3, with different analysts, different topics.


Martin Fischer

Simulating Construction


Jeff Harrow
The Harrow Group

What's 'Absurd' Today -- Won't Be!
Some things that were clearly both absurd and impossible to even consider 200 years ago have now become so commonplace as to be beneath notice.  In that context,  what falls into that category today? Explore current efforts that might render them not absurd, but competitively necessary, in a reasonable time frame given the exponential growth of technology.


John Moore
ARC Advisory Group

Manufacturing Simulation


Louis Columbus
AMR Research

Mechanical and Manufacturing


Allan Behrens

Will innovation be driven by multidisciplinary tools and environments?
Could the ‘silos of design' methodology prevalent today be transformed to deliver the next ‘big thing’ in innovation and design automation? The key to improvement may focus on our ability (or inability) to define new processes and change attitudes as opposed to abstracting and integrating mechanical, electronic and embedded software development tasks. Or, in fact, does conflict among vertical discipline teams improve the innovation process?


Harvey Levine
The Project Knowledge Group

Project Portfolio Management
PPM is not just an extension of project management—PPM is the process for managing an enterprises portfolio of projects to maximize the contribution that the totality of projects makes to the overall welfare and success of the enterprise.



Sponsored by Open Design Alliance
First Congress: The Future

What is on the horizon for engineering software and how will it affect us?

We've spent the past 40+ years working with CAD tools that were "almost good enough."  CAD is finally at the point where it isn't the center of our attention anymore. Where is engineering software going? What other types of tools will we need to perfect over the next 40 years?

In other words, what is on the horizon for engineering software and how will it affect us?

This working congress is an open forum for examining the issues surrounding technologies expected to have an impact on design and engineering before 2010. The purpose of these discussions is to form a consensus on the issues faced, consider approaches, and promote further dialog.

A separate congress will be held for each of our two primary constituencies: the AEC and mechanical/manufacturing market segments.

Mechanical and Manufacturing Congress


AEC Congress


Moderated by

Joel Orr
Cyon Research

  Moderated by

Brad Holtz
Cyon Research


Buses leave The Scottsdale Plaza Resort for Evening Under the Stars
Buses will be leaving from the main entrance of The Scottsdale Plaza Resort
Evening Under the Stars
Sponsored by Hewlett-Packard

We're headed up into the desert on a reservation. Truly wide-open spaces, miles from any structure and a sweeping view of the McDowell Mountains and the Sonoran Desert Valley below. A great western cookout under the stars and an almost-full moon. And for those who want a closer look at the magnificent Arizona sky, we have a couple of major-league telescopes. A COFES highlight!

This event is open to all registered COFES Attendees and registered Family Member Attendees. Other adult family members may attend if they have paid the Supplemental Registration fee.

Buses leave the Evening Event for The Scottsdale Plaza Resort
We will return to the resort between 10:00 and 11:00 pm.