COFES 2014 Agenda

Thursday, April 24, 2014

8:00
AM
Registration and Badge Pick-up Opens

Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits); shirts with collars; sandals or sneakers. Shorts are okay.  

8:30
AM
-
3:00
PM
The DaS Symposium

The Design and Sustainability Symposium: Exploring the intersection of design, simulation, and sustainability for the built (AEC) and manufactured environment. Details here.

1:00
PM
Tech Soft 3D Annual Customer Meeting
Current and potential Tech Soft 3D customers are invited to hear about the company’s outlook and plans in the near, medium and long-term future at their annual event. As a toolkit provider, Tech Soft 3D aggregates the needs of hundreds of leading engineering companies, making it a bellwether of the industry at large.
3:00
PM


 
Special Session: World Update
Holtz~Brad_88w
Brad Holtz
Cyon Research
  Peter Thorne Peter Thorne
Cambashi
  Stan Przybylinski Stan Przybylinski
CIMdata
 
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A presentation of recent research by Cambashi, CIMdata, and Cyon Research.

 
As last year, this is an informal session. Lots of information, but also lots of interaction and discussion.

Open to all COFES Attendees and their guests.
4:00
PM


 
Special Session: Beyond BIM: A visionary's perspective
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Eli Attia
Architect
Beyond BIM: A visionary's perspective
Engineered Architecture (EA) is a revolutionary, disruptive technology that stands to transform the $5 trillion global building industry by changing the ways in which buildings are designed, constructed and used. EA has a potential $Trillion impact, enabling creation of superior quality buildings that are 30-50% less costly to build, that can be brought to market 30-60% faster. EA enables efficient creation of these environmentally sustainable and lower life-cycle cost projects. Eli will also discuss his work on Super Tall Buildings a breakthrough design and technology that enable super tall buildings to reach record heights without the traditional structural cost premium, be constructed much more rapidly, while providing unprecedented content flexibility.
5:00
PM


 
Special Session: Joel Orr
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Joel Orr
Cyon Research
Curating Your Exploding Infosphere
The information tide is not just rising—it’s accelerating. The data, social networks, news, email, and other aspects of your own infosphere are growing, and at a pace that makes even just keeping up a significant challenge. Joel has been actively studying different strategies for this for decades. He’ll share his findings and seven simple and useful strategies for handling this challenge.
6:00 -
8:00
PM


 
Business Reception and Technology Suite Open House   Spouse & Guest-only Mixer 
Opening business reception. First formal opportunity for COFES Newbies to meet their Hosts. Technology Suites have been set up for you to discuss corporate direction, business development, and potential partnerships. They are NOT demo rooms—the vendors are here to talk, not sell. This is your opportunity to sign up for appointment time slots.

Music, food and refreshments.

*Restricted to COFES 2014 Attendees. Their spouses and guests are invited to a spouse- and guest-only mixer and may join them later at the welcome reception.  
While COFES Attendees are at their business reception, their spouses and guests will be treated to a wine tasting mixer/reception before they join us in the welcome reception at 8 pm. Enjoy the food, refreshments, and music in a relaxed setting.

*Open only to badged spouses/guests of COFES 2014 attendees.  
7:45
PM


 
COFES 2014 Opening Intro
Welcome, introductions, orientation, and schedule.
8:00 -
10:00
PM


 
Welcome Reception
Bring your spouse and join all COFES Attendees and sponsors for this evening social.

Music, food and refreshments.

*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and must be wearing their badges during the event.  

Friday, April 25, 2014


7:30
AM


 
Introductions and Breakfast
Each COFES attendee from the user community is assigned a leading industry analyst who will act as their host for the event. The host's primary responsibility is to make sure that you get the most value possible out of the event and introduce you to key industry players. Plan to meet your host/introducer for breakfast.  
Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits); shirts withcollars; sandals or sneakers. Shorts if it's hot.
 
8:30
AM


 
Kickoff: Opening Session and Call to Order
Your hosts, Cyon Research, will set the stage for the day's activities.  
9:00
AM


 
Keynote: Paul Saffo
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Paul Saffo
DISCERN
Cultivating Foresight: Seeing Clearly Amidst Exponential Change
Instinct tells us to pull in and focus on the present when crises hit and uncertainty overwhelms us. But this instinct is as wrong as the instinct that tells us to turn against a skid on an icy road. Like driving, forecasting can be learned, and one need not be a rocket scientist in order to see clearly into the future. In fact a few simple heuristics can go a long way towards making sense of what lies ahead.
Paul Saffo
Paul is a forecaster with over two decades experience helping corporate and governmental clients understand and respond to the dynamics of large-scale, long-term change. He is Managing Director of Foresight at Discern Analytics and teaches technology forecasting at Stanford where he is a Consulting Associate Professor in the Engineering School. Paul also teaches at Singularity University where he chairs the Future Studies track. He is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences. Paul holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University.
10:15
AM


 
Technology Suite Briefings 
Our Technology Suite vendors will present briefings on their technology and research:
 
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C3D Labs
Oleg Zykov
CEO
Geometric Modeling Kernels circa 2020
Geometry modeling kernels that have lived through the UNIX and Windows era now must make the transition to support a plethora of cloud strategies. How will this evolve over the next 6 years? What radical changes can we expect developers to require from their kernels and commercial components? Can the existing kernels make the transition, or will new requirements open the door to acceptance of a next generation of kernels?
 
 
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The Center for Understanding Change
Adrian Gheorghe
International Science Director
Fixing Complex Problems by Solving the Stakeholder Trust Issue
C4UC is developing a software tool that allows models (system dynamic and agent-based) to interact as if they were in a single, combined model, and it can do this even when the owners of those models are not willing to let their models beyond their own firewalls. In other words, the software will allow models/data held securely by independent stakeholders at multiple sites to run in an integrated framework without the stakeholders having to “trust” one another. This ability to allow stakeholders with a large and complex joint challenge to work together even when they don’t trust one another is likely to be a game changer.
 
 
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IBM
Brett Hillhouse
Worldwide Automotive Executive
Continuous Engineering for the Complex and Connected
Internet of Things (IoT) is not a dream. Today we’re seeing how more intelligent, instrumented, and interconnected products are transforming markets. How will manufacturers manage the complexity of designing systems of systems, while still being agile enough to respond to rapid changes in their markets? What is required to be able to engage in continuous engineering to address the ever increasing pressure to rethink, redesign, reintegrate, and re-innovate--continuously improving products and systems? How will design and manufacturing firms capture and share their engineering knowledge for efficient development of these complex and connected products?
 
 
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Lagoa
Thiago Costa
CEO
Disruptive Product Development
Lagoa's 3D cloud platform is transforming everything from visual prototyping to how customers engage consumers. Join us for a discussion on how to disrupt the product development lifecycle. Thiago’s background is unique as he's done VFx on movies such as Avatar as well as worked at the Stanford physics lab and Ubisoft. Join Thiago and Chris Williams in a disruptive discussion on the future of product development.
 
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Microsoft
Kris Iverson
Principal Development Engineer, 3D Printing
3D Printing. Facilitating the Maker market and accelerating growth in the Enterprise
3D Printing is much more than hype or the consumerization of additive manufacturing. It’s quickly establishing itself as the essential new capability for Millennials and for facilitating modern work practices. Please join us for a discussion about the state of the market, new work practices, futures and Microsoft’s role in 3D printing, together with a live demonstration.
 
 
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Santa Fe Institute
Chris Wood
Vice-President
Working with the Santa Fe Institute
Why do so many companies and government organizations find it useful to work with the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) which is at heart a basic science organization? Because SFI has learned how to address really hard problems. SFI is dedicated to the scientific understanding of complex adaptive systems: systems composed of many interacting components, each with many inter-connections, often mathematically non-linear, that can change and adapt over time. Small changes in one part of such a system can lead to massive and unpredictable changes in the system as a whole. Some of the most pressing challenges facing science and society today, including global conflict, clean energy, climate change, stable and productive economies, indeed the sustainability of human civilization, involve precisely these kinds of complex adaptive systems.
 
 
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Siemens PLM Software
Margarita Pariente
Director, Business Development
From Machine Automation to Machine Autonomy by 2020
Machine automation has been evolving in response to the demand for greater productivity and growth, improved workplace safety, and the ability to compete with manufacturing in low wage economies. However, advances in machine autonomy are required in order to make the next leap forward. What technologies will be required to support the operation of machines with greater autonomy by 2020? How do you design and manage productive work spaces that are flexible and where humans share space and tasks with robots?
 
 
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Top Systems
Sergey Bikulov
Executive Director
PLM Can Be Easy
The world of product development, manufacturing, and maintenance continues to get more complicated. PLM is one tool that we lean on to address this, but PLM is too hard. Can we find some non-cloud-based solution that isn’t too complicated to install, configure, customize, and is not cumbersome to use? Top Systems will share its thinking on this, including some interesting results achieved by applying parametric technology to PLM.
 
10:55
AM


 
Break
 
11:00
AM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
We've invited some of the brightest and most talented thinkers, analysts and users, to each lead a working discussion on an issue they view as critical. These discussions are strictly limited to no more than 24 people at a time.
 
Saffo~Paul  
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Paul Saffo
Discern
Keynoter's Session
An interactive discussion on the topics raised in Paul's keynote.

 
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Phares Noel
Cyon Research
STEM Evolution
STEM focus, education, and literacy have a direct impact on the vitality of our economy. By 2020, how will the tools of education change? How will our needs change? What STEM skills will employers of 2020 value? How do we shift our existing education systems to deliver future employees with those skills? What mechanisms might we need beyond our current education systems? How might we best leverage our influence to achieve these goals?

John Kizior  
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John Kizior
AECOM
Rethinking the BIM Ecosystem
BIM technology is mature. Powerful tools are available for the entire building life cycle, as are established best practices and industry standards. Why is the process still broken? “Silos” are less the problem today than is the industry’s collective myopia. For many, strategic vision is less about perceiving what might be possible down the road, and more about understanding and seeing the present clearly. What are the fundamental transformations possible today? What are the roadblocks to those transformations? How will that change by 2020?
Michelle Boucher  
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Michelle Boucher
Tech Clarity
CAD by 2020
What are the trends that are likely to impact the need for CAD over the next six years? With babyboomers retiring, and fewer students graduating with engineering degrees to replace them, a smaller pool of potential designers and engineering may be one trend. What potential advances in our design tools might fill in some of the gap over the next six years? What are the other trends we need to be watching and responding to? How will they change our world and how will we need to evolve our design tools and processes to meet the need?
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Jim Brown
Tech Clarity
Smart Products and the Internet of Things
How do product developers, manufacturers, and engineering software developers need to change to support the continual shift to smart, connected products? Manufacturers are designing more software-enabled products to drive innovation, flexibility, and cost reduction. The "Internet of Things" (IoT) is not just an interesting concept – it’s changing the economics of industries. What will the development tools of the future need to provide in order to bring these products to market fast without compromising quality? To support them through their lifecycles?

Dennis Nagy  
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Dennis Nagy
BeyondCAE
Simulation 2020
A realistic assessment of engineering simulation six years down the road must start with key enabling trends. What are these trends? How will they spread? What might block their progress? What do we KNOW will change? What do we THINK will change? What developments might sidetrack everything?
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Steve Wolfe
CAD/CAM Publishing
Engineering Software Makers Can’t Afford to be Aloof From Politics
Since its inception 40 years ago, the engineering software industry has had little involvement in politics. But the industry’s growth in revenues and profits has attracted attention from politicians, bureaucrats, and lawyers. Litigation by patent trolls, anti-trust actions, arcane tax laws that trap cash offshore, liability suits, the ACA, and the ever present desire to regulate every aspect of business has created a political climate that software firms can no longer afford to ignore. What can engineering software companies do to protect themselves and perhaps even benefit from government initiatives?
David Prawel  
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David Prawel
LongView Advisors
Impact of the Additive Manufacturing Explosion
The business of discrete product manufacturing is likely to have been dramatically transformed by the year 2020, much of it a result of the explosion of Additive Manufacturing (AM). What transformations are we likely to see? Will AM change the economics for small-shop manufacturers? Will they be able to play a serious role in global supply chains? What decisions should we be making today to thrive in this new landscape? How will product distribution change in the next 6 years? Should UPS and Fed-Ex be concerned, or will they be leading the change?
11:50
AM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
Analyst and user briefings, round 2, with different analysts, different topics.
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Richard Riff
Executive Consulting
Systems Engineering 2020
A vision of what systems engineering could be by 2020 and what needs to change in order to realize that vision.

Tom Sawyer  
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Tom Sawyer
Engineering News Record
Cognition?
With the formation of the IBM Watson Group, we are at the early stages of deployment of what can thought of as applied cognition. Yes, it’s very early and the technology is crude relative to what we’ve come to expect from Sci-Fi, but by 2020, applied cognition will be as pervasive as the internet and life without it will be equally unthinkable. And that’s just at the consumer level. What are the implications and opportunities for design and engineering? How will jobs and our education system react when much of the lower level thinking we do can be done better and faster by our device?
Jack Byers  
Jack Byers
VMI
Trends Affecting Global Landscape by 2020
Innovations, convergent, and/or disruption trends change the business landscape. These trends also evolve and mutate. Jack developed his Beyond Line of Sight tool to see and understand trends well in advance of their impact. What do we know today about trends that are likely to be affecting the global landscape by 2020? From whom and where will the disruption manifest itself? And how can you leverage that knowledge to your advantage?
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Monica Schnitger
Schnitger Corp
Data Capture Grows up: Reality as Context
Data capture is everywhere. The real utility of Data Capture comes after the capture stage – when you’ve processed the data and are able to use the processed data to provide a reality context. Today, most who use Data Capture are modeling on top of point-clouds, for as-is models. What if you could just model from the point cloud? What if the result from photogrammetry could be smart enough to know that "this" is a patient's nose for cosmetic surgery? Or that "this" is a surface blemish in the dam, while "that" is a crack from the interior?
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Allan Behrens
Taxal Limited
The Channel by 2020
The evolution of the channel ecosystem will change even more rapidly as we approach 2020. Which drivers will force our existing channels to rethink their business model? What are the key strategies that will survive the coming transitions? How best may the channel and vendors plan for the paradigm shifts that will undoubtedly affect the way that our customers consume and value the new/next generations of information technology?
Martin Fischer  
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Martin Fischer
CIFE
STEM, Jobs, and Education
The nature of jobs and what we do at work has drastically changed since 1980. Our education system and what it teaches has not. This second part of two STEM-focused briefings focuses on the connection between the domain of STEM and the domain of the industries we care about: Manufacturing and AEC. If much of what is currently taught as STEM education is made available online by 2020 as some expect, what should universities teach so that the products and buildings made in 2020 perform dramatically better?

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Chris De Neef
Fast Track Consulting
Prediction Horizons
Jules Verne predicted inventions a century ahead of their realization. We seem to have trouble predicting what our world will look like more than a year from now! Do we lack Jules Verne's vision; did our prediction horizon shrink dramatically due to our accelerating pace of innovation; or is something else going on here? We’ll start with a look at COFES’ track record in envisioning the future, and see what we got right, wrong, and what we can learn for the future.
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Brian Lockyear
Slate Shingle Studio
The Delicate Balance of Thoughtful Consideration and Speed
Architects, designers, and engineers used to have the luxury of carefully considering the smallest aspects of their design. Much of this luxury happened because of the amount of time required for the tedious tasks of design development and documentation. Today, our software tools have vastly shortened that phase. Execution speed is the enemy of thoughtful design iteration. We need that thoughtful design if we want buildings to be worthy of standing 100 years instead of 10. How can we reconcile those two opposing forces and stop our drive towards the equivalent of “fast food” design? Where can we find driving forces to offset the economics of getting it out the door quickly?
12:40
PM


 
Lunch
 
2:15
PM


 
Technology Suite Briefings 
Round 2 of Technology Suite briefings:  
 
C3D Labs
Oleg Zykov
CEO
Supporting Business Model Evolution
The Cloud and mobile have seriously disrupted the traditional business models for software. SaaS, freemium, subscription, pay-on-demand, etc. are just the beginning. And traditional engineering design tools (CAD, simulation, etc.) are also moving beyond the realm of the professional and into areas such as DIY. If you’re a kernel supplier or a component developer, what strategies support this explosion of business models?
 
 
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The Center for Understanding Change
Mike Riddle
Director of Meta-Model Architecture
C4UC Live!
This will be the first public demonstration of the C4UC solution for solving the stakeholder problem. Mike will show three different, but interrelated system dynamic models each located on a different computer, and separated by independent firewalls, all interacting to solve a single model, without exposing data or algorithms.
 
 
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IBM
Brett Hillhouse
Worldwide Automotive Executive
Continuous Engineering for the Complex and Connected
Internet of Things (IoT) is not a dream. Today we’re seeing how more intelligent, instrumented, and interconnected products are transforming markets. How will manufacturers manage the complexity of designing systems of systems, while still being agile enough to respond to rapid changes in their markets? What is required to be able to engage in continuous engineering to address the ever increasing pressure to rethink, redesign, reintegrate, and re-innovate--continuously improving products and systems? How will design and manufacturing firms capture and share their engineering knowledge for efficient development of these complex and connected products?
 
 
CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Lagoa
Thiago Costa
CEO
Disruptive Product Development
Lagoa's 3D cloud platform is transforming everything from visual prototyping to how customers engage consumers. Join us for a discussion on how to disrupt the product development lifecycle. Thiago’s background is unique as he's done VFx on movies such as Avatar as well as worked at the Stanford physics lab and Ubisoft. Join Thiago and Chris Williams in a disruptive discussion on the future of product development.
 
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Microsoft
Simon Floyd
Director, PLM Solutions
Advanced Decision Making with Predictive Analytics and Business Intelligence
By 2020 we will live in a world of 50 billion personal devices and 10 trillion fit-for-purpose systems facilitated by the Internet of Things and powered by information. In a future where information is the new currency, opportunities are abound. Please join for a discussion about Microsoft’s role in machine learning, predictive analytics, advanced decision making and the impact on design & engineering.
 
 
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Santa Fe Institute
Chris Wood
Vice-President
Adaptive Computation for Automated Program Repair
Errors in computer programs. We hate them. The Santa Fe Institute has been involved in research that applies strategies used by biological systems and applied similar strategies to tackle the problems of errors in computer programs. Adaptive Computation is a strategy for using what we’ve learned from biological computation and information-processing to inform the kinds of computational systems we humans build and deploy. We’ll discuss this work of Forrest, Weimer, and their colleagues that uses adaptive computational techniques to address a long-standing dream of modern computing: automated repair of errors in computer programs.
 
 
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Siemens PLM Software
Brian Grogan
Director, Product Management
New opportunities for PLM component technology in 2020
Design and manufacturing software vendors want to benefit from advances in technology and business models, such as cloud deployment and SaaS, but at the same time need to meet customer demand for zero-regression application functionality and quality, as well as maintaining interoperability with other systems. How will these business and deployment models evolve over the next 6 years? What are the underlying technology implications for software components such as 3D geometry kernels, constraint solvers, and shape search? What types of new software applications will look to adopt PLM component technologies in 2020?
 
 
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Top Systems
Sergey Koslov
Director of R&D
Parallel Computing in Engineering Software
Top Systems will discuss new approaches to programming and architecture designed to improve performance of complex design software systems, with examples from the new RGK geometric kernel and T-FLEX CAD. A key point in this discussion will be thinking on how to drive better performance from multi-core and multi-threading hardware.
 
3:00
PM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
Analyst briefings, round 3, with different analysts, different topics.  
Brian Seitz  
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Brian Seitz
Cyon Research
Portfolio Management When the Future is Fuzzy
Portfolio Management is easy when the rate of change is constant and risks are clear, but how do you manage resources in a hyper-volatile and interconnected environment? How do you manage the tradeoff between Lean and Resilient? What tools and methodologies can link Business Strategy, Information Technology and Product/Market Planning to an optimum path in given an unknowable or uncertain destination?

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Jon Peddie
Jon Peddie Research
2020 Computer Graphics
The visual and audio output we marvel at today will, in 2020, seem painfully crude, slow, and have limited our productivity. Compute devices, projection systems, natural user interfaces, and uncompromised ownership and security of our work will give us friction-free total access to an enormous amounts of data, worldwide collaboration, and almost instantaneous physical prototypes. What’s coming down the pike and how do we mold our strategies to take advantage of it?
Peter Thorne  
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Peter Thorne
Cambashi
The Death of Coding (Will Bring Life to Software)
Code and Software have been almost synonymous for 50 years. Elegant and efficient code often makes useful but inflexible and unresilient software. But writing code is not the only way software can be defined, engineered, built, and tested. We’ll discuss new approaches to software development, especially for embedded systems, where the design takes place at the systems engineering and requirements level and the code is derived (or even evolved) but not written. Design of design
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Chad Jackson
Lifecycle Insights
It’s 2020: Do You Know Where Your Software Is?
Traditionally, design tools have been loaded and run locally. Recently, software providers have started to offer design tools (CAD, simulation, analysis, collaboration, etc.) with a variety of deployment options (public cloud, private cloud, virtualized, as well as “file-less”) and new business models. What are the implications for both the end-user and his/her firm for these new offerings. How does this affect the management of design data? How should we think about this as we look six years down the road?

Don Tolle  
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Don Tolle
CIMdata
Examining the Relationship Between Requirements and Model-Based Systems Engineering
Well defined and documented functional requirements are essential to the new product development process. Effective Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) systems are both defined by and define/refine these requirements. How do we resolve the circular reference? Where are the major gaps/disconnects in the current systems engineering/requirements definition process? What impact will systems modeling tools and emerging cross-domain data exchange standards such as Modelica, SysML and FMI have on bridging these MBSE gaps? What will best practice look like by 2020?
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Jay Vleeschhouwer
Griffin Securities
The View from Wall Street
Jay will review the performance of the technical software companies and industry and their prospects for 2014 and beyond. Formerly a senior analyst and managing director with Merrill Lynch, Jay is now the senior research analyst at Griffin Securities. This will be his 13th annual review of the industry at COFES, and your only opportunity to see him in something besides a business suit.
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Tom Pennino
TP Technologies
EDA 2020
A realistic assessment of the EDA industry six years down the road. What are the key enabling trends? How might these trends spread? What might block their progress? What do we KNOW will change? What do we THINK will change? What developments might sidetrack everything?
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David Sherburne
Carestream Health
The Evolution of Product
What am I selling? What does my customer think I’m selling? What is my customer willing to pay for? What do I need to do to deliver that? Then, comes: How do I do that better, more efficiently, with less risk and more profit? As we head towards 2020, the move to “customer experience” and the “Servitization of Product”, much of the answers to these questions will change. How does that change the way we need to think about product and the tools we interact with to create “product”?

3:45
PM


 
Break
 
4:00
PM


 
First Congress: Maieutic Parataxis
Maieutic: The midwifery of knowledge.
Parataxis: The juxtaposition of ideas, without connection or conjunction

We will be hosting a series of five-minute vignettes drawn from topics and ideas that, while perhaps not yet fully formed, are likely to impact your thinking about how we design, build, and interact with software in the future.

Take a look at http://cofes.com/mp to see the Maieutic Parataxis presentations from previous COFES!  
5:15
PM
 
Free
5:45
PM
 
Buses leave The Scottsdale Plaza Resort for Evening Under the Stars
Buses will be leaving from the main entrance of The Scottsdale Plaza Resort*
 
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
6:30
PM


 
Evening Under the Stars at Los Cedros
La Puesta Del Sol     We’re headed out into truly wide-open spaces and a sweeping view of the sky once again. For 2014, we’re headed back to Los Cedros, a Moroccan citadel for Arabian horses. A great western cookout, and for those who want a closer look at the magnificent Arizona sky, we have a couple of major-league telescopes. A COFES highlight!
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event  
9:30
PM


 
Buses Leave the Evening Event for The Scottsdale Plaza Resort
We will return to the resort between 10:00 and 11:00 pm.

Saturday, April 26, 2014


8:00
AM


 
Breakfast
 
8:45
AM


 
Morning Kickoff
Your hosts will set the stage for the day’s activities.
9:00
AM


 
Keynote: George Dyson — 2020 Vision: Technology and Prediction
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George Dyson
2020 Vision: Why the Technology of Prediction keeps getting better while the Prediction of Technology lags behind

On December 2, 1941 (five days before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor) a 28-year-old engineer named Julian Bigelow, working with Norbert Wiener, compiled a list of 14 “Maxims for Ideal Prognosticators” to guide the design of a statistical anti-aircraft fire-control director, termed by them a “debomber,” whose goal was to predict the optimum time and location at which to explode an anti-aircraft shell, given the observed flight path of an airplane whose goal was to be somewhere else. The Bigelow-Wiener debomber was introduced too late to affect the outcome of WWII, but Bigelow’s postwar collaboration with John von Neumann resulted in the hardware and software surrounding us today. What can Bigelow’s insights into the flight path prediction problem tell us about the problem of predicting where technology will be at some future point in time? “We should clear any fog surrounding the notion of ‘prediction,’” Bigelow warned. “So-called ‘leads’ evaluated by networks or any other means are actually ‘lags’ (functions of the known past) artificially reversed [in time].”


 
George Dyson

GEORGE DYSON, an historian among futurists, is the author of Baidarka; Project Orion; Darwin Among the Machines; and Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe.

A member of the fabulous Dyson clan, George Dyson is sometimes defined as a son-of and a brother-of, but he has found his own voice as a chronicler and a philosopher of science and the future. The son of physicist Freeman Dyson, George grew up inside one of the most fervid hotbeds of scientific research in the Atomic Age. He spent his early adulthood living in a treehouse, and designing and building Aleutian kayaks (chronicled in his book Baidarka: The Kayak). While he maintains his kayak business now, his parallel interest in science and the future has brought him to the fore.

His 1997 book Darwin Among the Machines made a case for the Internet as a growing organism, an evolving life force. In 2002, he published a story from his extraordinary childhood, Project Orion, about the drive to build a nuclear-powered rocket aimed at Saturn. His most recent book, Turing's Cathedral, focuses on the history and future of computing.
 
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Peter Marks
Design Insight
2020 Vision: Nurturing the Future



 
10:45
AM


 
Break
 
11:00
AM


 
Discussions and Roundtables
Cyon Research investigates issues in engineering and design. That research forms the basis for the issue topics for these group discussions. Meeting rooms are set up in suites around the pool, each with a different issue to discuss. Also, meetings among groups with a common interest.

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Implications of the “Internet of Things” in Design, Construction, and the Life of Buildings
    When smart building devices can communicate, the potential for reduction of energy and water consumption and for improvements to security and maintenance operations are huge. But none of these improvements will happen if the “Internet of things” morphs into the “archipelago of automation,” with unconnected “islands.” What can we do now to address the need to evolve technology and standards to make buildings truly smart? Where is the role for BIM in thinking about IoT?

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Designing Resilient Products
    At COFES 2012, we learned that making things more robust may actually make them do more damage when they break. Robustness also adds weight and cost. Designing products for resilience requires a different mindset, paying attention to potential failure modes and safe return when products are stressed beyond design constraints. And there are big dollars involved. According to WarrantyWeek, almost $25Billion was spent by US manufacturers last year on warranty claims. Many companies are looking at their warranty expenditures as a target for increasing profitability. Dollars spent on design and manufacturing more resilient products can be paid back many times over through reduced warranty claims. How do we change our process to foster resilient design? How does usage data enhanced by IoT enhance our opportunity to reduce warranty cost and enhance resilience?

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What If Ideas Lose Protected Status?
    The idea of protecting intellectual property is built into the US Constitution, “…… to promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts,” but such protection is time-limited. It’s up to Congress to determine how that IP is protected and what is in the public’s interest. But do the legal protections afforded by current patent and copyright laws promote the progress of arts and sciences—or inhibit their advance? How might they be improved? Not all countries protect IP. Some consider ideas to be fair game. How do you work in a global environment with such an uneven playing field? What would change if the US Congress rewrote the laws to deny the patentability of most software, but to enhance software copyright?

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The Evolution of the Business of Design and Engineering
    “The cloud” has brought about a sea-change in the economic models of software. The whole idea of software ownership, licensing, rental, use, seats, etc. is undergoing a complete reboot. And new go-to-market options are transforming the role of the channel. We’re in the middle of it now. If we keep on this course, what will the new landscape look like? If we can access anything from anywhere how do we decide who has the “right” to do so? What might happen by 2020 that could radically change this?

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Swarms, Autonomous Devices, and Self-Programing Machines?
    We’re rapidly approaching the time when we will need to be able to program things to program themselves. Design theory and concepts are emerging for these autonomous systems--particularly for swarms of multiple-specialty systems, and for systems that design systems. What types of tools will we need to do this? What’s our role once they have been set in motion? How do we build in safety? What don’t we know?

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Future Hardware and Its Implications
    The world of hardware is rapidly evolving. Besides 3D printing and UI innovations, we can expect other advances in computing by 2020. 3D chip architectures are coming to market. And earlier this year, Micron published its “Automata” chip, with a fundamentally new computing architecture. How will these advances change the platforms we need to build for? Where are the key opportunities? How fast do we need to act? What happens if we don’t? Will this be mitigated or exacerbated by the “the cloud”?

The Evolution of Simulation
    Today we can simulate behaviors of materials, stress, thermal, fluid motions, etc. What’s next for simulation? Who’s doing the foundational research today that will become common practice by 2020? What will we still be just exploring? What will remain beyond our grasp in 2020?

The COFES STEM Initiative (Part 1)
    We are uniquely positioned to advocate for engineering-software- related STEM initiatives. The COFES STEM initiative was formed to identify, explore, and communicate potential STEM solutions. Whether at the national or global level, this group’s vendor-neutral mandate is to complement other STEM programs. The real potential power this group has is to provide a chorus of voices made up of industry analysts, educators, and working professionals to be an agent of change. The morning working group will focus on building an action plan to take our advocacy beyond COFES.

12:30
PM


 
Lunch
 
2:00
PM


 
Discussions and Roundtables, Round 2
A second set of 90-minute discussions.

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PLM, IoT, and Big Data: Managing the Feedback Loop
    IoT ("the Internet of things"), is bringing changes to the way we design. IoT will also generate "big data". Beyond the needs of IoT functionality, how will PLM need to evolve to leverage this new design asset? Is PLM the right place for it? If not, where does it get managed and how do critical ideas get back to design and engineering?

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Systems-Engineering Thinking: Design & Delivery for Customer Delight
    It used to be enough to design and manufacture high quality mechanical devices. Then we added power to those devices, increasing product complexity. Then we added behaviors to those devices, again increasing complexity. Now we’ve gone beyond behaviors to interaction and customer engagement. What does it mean to design for products in this context? At this level of complexity, we have gone beyond the limits of what our existing tools are capable of. Only by embracing systems engineering thinking will we be able to deliver the “customer experience” / “customer delight” the market demands. How are the tools for systems engineering going to evolve to address these needs? How do we need to change our thinking about our current design and engineering tools in the context of systems-engineering- centric design?

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Cognitive Computing in the Engineering Workplace
    IBM’s Watson technology is being applied to commercial markets. Watson’s combination of natural-language capabilities and an ability to generate hypotheses should be able to address big problems in fields such as customer relations, finance, healthcare, and R&D. Google has also been building tools that analyze big data and show signs of machine cognition. What will machine cognition mean to engineering and design? Join this conversation for a continuation of Tom Sawyer’s Friday-morning briefing to brainstorm about how this new technology might change the workplace, and perhaps help engineers solve tough problems.

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How Search is Changing Engineering Data
    New search technologies can help avoid designing or specifying new parts when existing ones will do. Search can also help engineers find new parts and manufacturing or construction methods that can reduce costs and schedules. Search is also changing the way we store things. When search was poor, we stored things in logical analogs of physical storage: files and folders. Now we can consider even things like email to be searchable databases. How is improved search likely to impact other areas of how we store and interact with engineering data?

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Blurring the Line Between Manufacturing and Construction
    Cross-fertilization between MCAD and AEC – what problems have been solved, what systems have been developed for MCAD that might have relevance in AEC--and vice versa? It seems as though MCAD and AEC are both off in their respective domains, possibly missing opportunities to leverage work done in the other domain. Are there innovations in each discipline that the other could learn from and tap into? If so, what are some of the opportunities for cross-fertilization between the two? What technologies might accelerate that? What barriers keep getting in the way? Are there any economic game changers in the wind?

Gimme a Break: Rewrite Your Damn Code
    Come on now! Multi-chip hardware has been around for almost 20 years and multi-threaded, multi-core hardware for almost 10. What’s it going to take to get you to go back to the drawing board and rethink ALL your software in this (no longer new) context? While you’re at it, what else should you be redesigning your software to accommodate? How about design for complexity and resilience? Let’s discuss and share strategies that we’ve explored successfully, including strategies that have worked spectacularly.

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Augmented Reality: A Tool or an Experience?
    Several factors are converging to support both. Google Glass and Oculus Ridge are just the precursors of several generations of hardware that will accelerate the mass deployment of AR. We’ve already seen AR contact lenses powered by sugars in tears. By 2020, these and other devices will be pervasive. And you won’t necessarily be advertising the fact that you are augmented. And we need to decide WHAT that we want to be augmented with. It’s not just about games and where to get coffee. Imagine AR in AEC with construction docs overlaid on a steelworker’s field of vision. What roles might our BIM and PLM tools play in this?

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The COFES STEM Initiative (Part 2): Tangible Steps
    A continuation of the morning roundtable. The afternoon working group will focus on planning for the next immediate tangible steps for The COFES STEM Initiative, and may break out into multiple working groups for targeted discussions.

3:30
PM


 
Break
 
3:45
PM


 
Second Congress: The Business of Design and Engineering
Holtz~Brad_88w
Brad Holtz
Cyon Research
  Monica Schnitger Monica Schnitger
Schnitger Corporation
 
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This working congress session is an open forum for examining the issues surrounding technologies expected to have an impact on the business of design and engineering. The purpose of these discussions is to examine current issues, explore opportunities for a brighter future, consider approaches, and promote further dialogue. The focus for COFES 2014 will center on two topics.

The first is the theme for COFES 2014: Correcting 2020 Vision
The second will be the takeaways from the COFES roundtables and briefings.    
5:15
PM
Free
5:30
PM
Reception
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
6:30-
9:00
PM


 
Dinner and Awards
Dinner and the closing session of COFES, including The CAD Society Industry Awards.*
 
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event 

Sunday, April 27, 2014


6:30-
8:30
AM


 
Early Riser's Breakfast
For golfers and those with early flights
8:30-
10:30
AM
Sunday Brunch
Sunday Brunch Poolside at the Cafe Cabana

Relax and enjoy the morning!
 
10:30
AM


 
Special Session: A Chat with a Special Guest
Fu~Ping_88w.jpg   On Sunday at COFES we invite a special guest to spend the morning with us discussing the ways of the world with those who still have an opportunity to change it—US!

Ping Fu's autobiography, Bend, Not Break is a remarkable book about a remarkable life. Ping has agreed to discuss her life and the book at our Sunday post-brunch "fireside" chat. We hope you'll be able to join us.

All COFES Interns will take part as equal participants with the other COFES attendees.  
 
12:30
PM


 
Insights from our Interns
Each year at the end of COFES we sit down with the students who intern at COFES. This engaging and wide-ranging discussion has been incredibly enlightening--perhaps for them, but even more so for us. These next-generation leaders have much to contribute.

All COFES Interns will take part as equal participants with the other COFES attendees.