COFES 2015 Agenda

Thursday, April 16, 2015

8:00
AM
Registration and Badge Pick-up Opens

Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits); shirts with collars; sandals or sneakers. Shorts are okay.  

8:30
AM
-
3:00
PM
The DaS Symposium

The Design and Sustainability Symposium: Exploring the intersection of design, simulation, and sustainability for the built (AEC) and manufactured environment. Details here.

1:00
PM
Tech Soft 3D Annual Customer Meeting
Current and potential Tech Soft 3D customers are invited to hear about the company’s outlook and plans in the near, medium and long-term future at their annual event. As a toolkit provider, Tech Soft 3D aggregates the needs of hundreds of leading engineering companies, making it a bellwether of the industry at large.
3:00
PM


 
Special Session: World Update
Brad Holtz
Brad Holtz
Cyon Research
  Jon Peddie
Jon Peddie Research
  Peter Thorne Peter Thorne
Cambashi
   
A presentation of recent research by Cyon Research, Jon Peddie Research, and Cambashi.

 
As last year, this is an informal session. Lots of information, but also lots of interaction and discussion.

Open to all COFES Attendees and their guests.
3:30
PM
-
6:00
PM


 
Special Session: Report from the Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Summit
Steve Levine Steve Levine
Dassault Systemes SIMULIA
  Steve Coy Steve Coy
TimeLike Systems
  Steve Coy Hubertus Tummescheit
Modelon
  Jack Ring Jack Ring
Cyon Research
  Marc Halpern Marc Halpern
Gartner
  Jon Hirschtick Jon Hirschtick
Onshape
  Keith Meintjes
CIMdata
  Malcolm Panthaki Malcolm Panthaki
Comet Solutions
 
Brad Holtz
Brad Holtz
Cyon Research
  Joe Walsh Joe Walsh
IntrinSIM
 
In January 2015, a very special summit was held at the Santa Fe Institute: The Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Summit (ASSESS). The purpose of that Summit was to identify and resolve the issues that confront simulation software and the simulation software industry as we move beyond the recent economic crash and face new and complex challenges. The Summit put a stake in the ground to prioritize questions, expose hidden issues, and start the conversation that we jointly benefit by discussing. Here at COFES 2015, we continue the conversation. In this two-hour plenary, we’ll present an overview of the summit, present seven of the top items raised at ASSESS, and which will lead to a discussion of the issues.
6:00 -
8:00
PM


 
Business Reception and Technology Suite Open House   Spouse & Guest-only Mixer 
Opening business reception. First formal opportunity for COFES Newbies to meet their Hosts. Technology Suites have been set up for you to discuss corporate direction, business development, and potential partnerships. They are NOT demo rooms—the vendors are here to talk, not sell. This is your opportunity to sign up for appointment time slots.

Music, food and refreshments.

*Restricted to COFES 2015 Attendees. Their spouses and guests are invited to a spouse- and guest-only mixer and may join them later at the welcome reception.  
While COFES Attendees are at their business reception, their spouses and guests will be treated to a wine tasting mixer/reception before they join us in the welcome reception at 8 pm. Enjoy the food, refreshments, and music in a relaxed setting.

*Open only to badged spouses/guests of COFES 2015 attendees.  
7:45
PM


 
COFES 2015 Opening Intro
Welcome, introductions, orientation, and schedule.
8:00 -
10:00
PM


 
Welcome Reception
Bring your spouse and join all COFES Attendees and sponsors for this evening social.

Music, food and refreshments.

*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and must be wearing their badges during the event.  

Friday, April 17, 2015


7:30
AM


 
Introductions and Breakfast
Each COFES attendee from the user community is assigned a leading industry analyst who will act as their host for the event. The host's primary responsibility is to make sure that you get the most value possible out of the event and introduce you to key industry players. Plan to meet your host/introducer for breakfast.  
Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits or jackets); shirts with or without collars ; sandals or sneakers. Shorts are fine, too.
 
8:30
AM


 
Kickoff: Opening Session and Call to Order
Your hosts, Cyon Research, will set the stage for the day's activities.  
9:00
AM


 
Keynote: David Brin
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David Brin
Futurist
The murky road ahead: from an Internet of Things to human augmentation and AI… Looking beyond the five year ROI horizon
Responsible companies and chief engineers must focus on the five year Return on Investment. But we all know there are other horizons. Failure to take that into account doomed great companies like Polaroid, Kodak and Xerox. What share of your time/energy/budget should be spent exploring the realm of “what-if” possibilities?

David Brin
David Brin is a scientist, inventor, and New York Times bestselling author. With books translated into 25 languages, he has won multiple Hugo, Nebula, and other awards. A film directed by Kevin Costner was based on David's novel The Postman. Other works have been optioned by Paramount and Warner Bros. David's science-fictional Uplift Saga explores genetic engineering of higher animals, like dolphins, to speak. His new novel from Tor Books is Existence.

As a scientist/futurist, David is seen frequently on television shows such as The ArchiTechs, Universe, and Life After People (most popular show ever on the History Channel) — with many appearances on PBS, BBC and NPR. An inventor with many patents, he is in-demand to speak about future trends, keynoting for IBM, Google, Procter & Gamble, SAP, Microsoft, Qualcomm, the Mauldin Group, and Casey Research, all the way to think tanks, Homeland Security, and the CIA.

With degrees from Caltech and the University of California-San Diego, Dr. Brin serves serves on advisory panels ranging from astronomy, NASA innovative concepts, nanotech, and SETI to national defense and technological ethics. His nonfiction book The Transparent Society explores the dangers of secrecy and loss of privacy in our modern world. It garnered the prestigious Freedom of Speech Prize from the American Library Association.

More extensive background writeups can be found at the biography page.

Trailer for his latest book, "Existence": http://youtu.be/wzr-DSDMkJM
The Brin Weblog: davidbrin.blogspot.com See more at: www.davidbrin.com

10:15
AM


 
Technology Suite Briefings 
Our Technology Suite vendors will present briefings on their technology and research.
 
Blackbox-Orange
Pat Chartrand
President & CTO
The MAKER movement of CAD Software
A Discussion on how the MAKER movement can be leveraged within CAD rooms everywhere. By enabling designer, engineers and Management to design their own extension to their favorite design software.
 
 
The Center for Understanding Change
John Voeller
Founding Director
The Emperors Need New Binoculars
John’s COFES 2011 keynote about the “End of Sufficient Plenty” explained the need for “Wide Thinking” – examining the huge gap between linear, reactive thinking and thinking that is non-linear, thoughtful, and covering a “wider scope”. We need to make decisions based on a fully integrating the increasing interdependencies and complexities of the broader context. The Center for Understanding Change (C4UC) was founded to build an organization (C4UC) and the tools to tackle these issues, directly as a result of that talk. In the intervening four years, several things have become very evident. First, that the growing number, level and intensity of the projected issues are following the paths predicted in that talk. Second, that his assessment about the need for a new way to think was good, but incomplete. What did he miss? How has C4UC’s work expanded the original thesis? What are the implications of the updated thesis?
 
 
Onshape
Jon Hirschtick
Founder & Chairman
Onshape Partnership Opportunities
Onshape is the first and only full-cloud 3D CAD system that lets everyone on a design team work together using any web browser, phone, or tablet. We will review how Onshape solves many of the problems of traditional CAD. We will share how the marketplace is reacting to our Beta offering and discuss new partnership opportunities that exist for companies that provide complementary software (CAM, Simulation, Rendering, Content, etc.).
 
 
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Santa Fe Institute
Matt Koehler
Complexity Science Area Lead, MITRE
Engineering Complex Systems
We are building increasingly larger and more interconnected engineered systems. This is the realm of systems of systems, or complex systems. People are not a trivial component of these systems. The balance between people, software, and other elements of the systems may change over time. How do you design and engineer complex systems when the elements themselves are changing? MITRE has faced this challenge effectively by leveraging its relationship with the Santa Fe Institute (SFI). What role does SFI play in exploring complex systems and how does that fit in a commercial environment?
 
 
Siemens PLM Software
George Allen
Chief Technologist
Geometric Modeling: The Times They Are A-Changin’
We have been modeling the shapes of physical objects in essentially the same way for 35 years or so. However, there are some emerging trends that will almost certainly force some changes: additive manufacturing needs representations of the insides of objects, not just their boundaries; GPUs require homogeneous geometry and algorithms; physical scanning devices are producing new types of data, like point clouds and voxels. What will happen? Evolution or revolution?
 
10:55
AM


 
Break
 
11:00
AM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
We've invited some of the brightest and most talented thinkers, analysts and users, to each lead a working discussion on an issue they view as critical. These discussions are strictly limited to no more than 24 people at a time.
 
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David Brin
Futurist
Keynoter's Session
An interactive discussion on the topics raised in David's keynote.

 
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Deke Smith
Cyon Research
Public Impact of Private (and Public) Buildings
The benefit and impact that public and private construction has on the general public is not generally taken into account during the design process. There is no feedback loop or influence on behalf of the general public in the design process, other than the typical minimum mandatories of zoning and building codes. What can we do to change this? How big an issue is it? How do we fix this without putting the burden on designers and without imposing costs on owners?
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Keith Meintjes
CIMdata
Simulation Governance: Confidence First
Simulation can be demonstrably superior to hardware-based test and development in a number of aspects. Unfortunately, many companies fail to develop confidence in their simulation capability. This is not simply a technology issue, but one of organization and culture. Companies do not trust simulation to make critical decisions, yet they do not close the loop to calibrate and validate simulation so as to develop or confirm their own capability. How do we change this?
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Andreas Vlahinos
Advanced Engineering Solutions
3D Printing Screams for (and Enables) Different Design Processes and Tools
Additive Manufacturing (AM) has enormous potential. Current CAD, CAE, and topology optimization tools, while relatively mature, are not yet tailored to exploit AM. The design philosophies we are accustomed to are focused on the needs of traditional manufacturing processes. How do our tools need to change to really take advantage of AM and the mixed-mode of AM+SM (AM plus Subtractive Manufacturing)? What can we do if we’re freed from the constraints of SM? With multi-material AM, we have the ability to change material properties. How do we bring the design of materials into the design process? What other tools do we need to change (or can we build) to unlock the potential of AM?

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Michelle Boucher
Tech Clarity
The Verticalization of PLM Vendors
There has been a big change among most of the PLM software vendors to a vertical, industry-centric business strategy. These PLM vendors have dedicated resources to the unique needs of each industry sector. They're creating specialized offerings to meet industry-specific challenges, following in the footsteps of other enterprise software markets a decade ago. What does this mean for their customers? What potential pitfalls are created by this verticalization? Will this hinder or enable solution value? How will vendors balance investment between the 20% of requirements that meet 80% of customers' needs versus the 80% required to support the last 20%? How does this impact the respective roles of mainstream and specialized MCAD?

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Jon Peddie
Jon Peddie Research
“Strategery” for Virtualization and Remote Graphics
Work anywhere, anytime, on almost any machine. We’re at an inflection point that is enabling new levels of collaboration and error-free productivity. The combination of virtualization of GPUs, effective virtualization software, enhanced security algorithms and security hardware, and widespread high bandwidth access has made this possible. What are the remaining barriers to adoption? Why should we care? How does this impact our corporate business models and strategic planning?

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Jack Byers
Vanguard Marketing International
The Tunnel Vision Trap
We all have to get the job done. Tunnel vision is what happens when we focus on the finish line at the expense of the context. Similarly, focus on the bottom line leads to a similar tunnel vision ignoring the side effects of that focus. What can enable us to avoid tunnel vision? How do we make time? Where’s the payoff?
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Bob Deragisch
Parker Hannifin
Internet of Things (IoT) Part 1: Security, Management, and Control
Merely instrumenting a product does not provide value. Where and how to capture and communicate the ‘sensed’ data, security, rights management, conflicting transmission vectors, and analytics are key to getting (and protecting) value from IoT. How do we plan for dealing with security at each step of the process? What is needed to manage the data and analytical insights? Where do sustainability, recycling/reuse considerations come into play? And how do we balance openness, security, and need for control?

11:50
AM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
Analyst and user briefings, round 2, with different analysts, different topics.
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Phares Noel
Cyon Research
The COFES STEM Initiative
STEM focus, education, and literacy have a direct impact on the vitality of our economy. CAD and design tools are now available to students at no cost. What is required to make that accessibility valuable and relevant? What STEM skills will employers value in the coming years? Where do design tools fit in? How do we shift our existing education systems to deliver future employees with those skills? What mechanisms might we need beyond our current education systems? How might we best leverage our influence to achieve these goals?

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Michael Tardif
Building Lifecycle Information Group
Informatics: Rethinking Deliverables
The design process generates much more value than many of our clients, who want traditional deliverables, are prepared to receive. Design professionals trying to deliver value are hampered by a culture of traditional deliverables. How do we change that? How can we show our clients the value of what we can deliver? What is the role of informatics in making this possible?

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Marc Halpern
Gartner
Rethinking Simulation as a Strategic Discovery and Knowledge Creation Tool
Most organizations miss the greatest value of simulation. More than validation and prediction, simulation can accelerate discovery and knowledge creation. To do this requires proper discipline and systematic approach. We'll explore the nature of that discipline and how augmenting simulation with data analytics, dimensional analysis, and content/knowledge management buttressed by scenario planning and systems-centric thinking can accelerate knowledge creation.
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Steve Wolfe
CAD/CAM Publishing
What Will Convince Customers to Move CAD from their Desktops to an Online Service?
Today most CAD companies offer software as a service option as well as installable packages. One benefit is reducing administrative costs by eliminating the need to install software and updates. But is this improvement enough to get customers to abandon personal workstations that have proven reliability and performance? What else must cloud-based CAD systems offer to be irresistible? What are the impediments to the transition?

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Joe Barkai
Diagnostic Strategies
Internet of Things (IoT) Part 2: Changing the Design and the Design Process
Merely connecting a product doesn’t make an IoT. Product designers and business owners need to define the functionality that forms classes of connected and collaborative physical entities; AND the physical architecture often needs to reflect the operational needs of IoT. As we begin to incorporate IoT mindset in product design, we need to revisit the role of engineering software (including ALM, PLM, etc.). How will our tools support the demands of IoT? What are the IoT design issues? What methods, tools and organizational maturity are needed to address them?

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Jay Vleeschhouwer
Griffin Securities
The View from Wall Street
Jay will review the performance of the technical software companies and industry, and their prospects for 2015 and beyond. Formerly a senior analyst and managing director with Merrill Lynch, Jay is now the senior research analyst at Griffin Securities. This will be his 14th annual review of the industry at COFES, and your only opportunity to see him in something besides a business suit.

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Dennis Nagy
Beyond CAE
Most Engineers Don’t Use Simulation: How Can We Change That?
Engineering Simulation (CAE) is an essential part of mainstream product development workflow. Despite that, the penetration of CAE into wider use is still in its infancy, with fewer than 20% (perhaps as few as 5%) of engineers using CAE. What will it take to get CAE used by a solid majority of engineers? What obstacles are in the way to achieving broader use and how do we overcome them? Will changing where in the workflow CAE is used enable its increased use? What role do validation, testing, confidence, ease of use, problem-specific templates/apps, and machine learning play?

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Tom Pennino
TP Technologies
PLM from an EDA Viewpoint
After years of moderate success, PLM, driven in part by the significant electronic content in automobiles, has become a competitive necessity for Electronic Design Automation (EDA). In addition, the integration of the automobile into the Internet further motivates the adoption of PLM into the EDA tool set. This discussion will focus on PLM growth and assimilation into EDA, with a strong view from EDA’s perspective.
12:40
PM


 
Lunch
 
2:15
PM


 
Technology Suite Briefings 
Round 2 of Technology Suite briefings.  
 
CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Blackbox-Orange
Pat Chartrand
President & CTO
The MAKER movement of CAD Software
A Discussion on how the MAKER movement can be leveraged within CAD rooms everywhere. By enabling designer, engineers and Management to design their own extension to their favorite design software.
 
 
CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
The Center for Understanding Change
Mike Riddle
Director of Meta-Model Architecture
Software Tools Reimagined
At COFES 2000, Mike Riddle asked the question: Why are we using software tools designed for hardware of the 1980’s and earlier? He spent the next 15 years designing a conceptual framework and software toolkit to address hardware from 2010’s forward. The toolkit reduces time-to-market, simplifies debugging and product support, and provides for plug-ins that can work across multiple product generations without revision. The framework allows for the separation of high- and low-level design while stressing high performance. Similar in scale and scope to Microsoft’s .NET architecture, this collection of extreme-encapsulation objects can be used to greatly simplify the design and implementation of complex systems, including distributed, multi-core, and multiple-platform solutions.
 
 
Onshape
Jon Hirschtick
Founder & Chairman
Onshape Partnership Opportunities
Onshape is the first and only full-cloud 3D CAD system that lets everyone on a design team work together using any web browser, phone, or tablet. We will review how Onshape solves many of the problems of traditional CAD. We will share how the marketplace is reacting to our Beta offering and discuss new partnership opportunities that exist for companies that provide complementary software (CAM, Simulation, Rendering, Content, etc.).
 
 
CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Santa Fe Institute
Matt Koehler
Complexity Science Area Lead, MITRE
Working with the Santa Fe Institute
Why do so many companies and government organizations find it useful to work with the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) which is at heart a basic science organization? Because SFI has learned how to address really hard problems. SFI is dedicated to the scientific understanding of complex adaptive systems: systems composed of many interacting components, each with many inter-connections, often mathematically non-linear, that can change and adapt over time. Small changes in one part of such a system can lead to massive and unpredictable changes in the system as a whole. Some of the most pressing challenges facing science and society today, including global conflict, clean energy, climate change, stable and productive economies, indeed the sustainability of human civilization, involve precisely these kinds of complex adaptive systems.
 
 
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Siemens PLM Software
George Allen
Chief Technologist
Geometric Modeling: The Times They Are A-Changin’
We have been modeling the shapes of physical objects in essentially the same way for 35 years or so. However, there are some emerging trends that will almost certainly force some changes: additive manufacturing needs representations of the insides of objects, not just their boundaries; GPUs require homogeneous geometry and algorithms; physical scanning devices are producing new types of data, like point clouds and voxels. What will happen? Evolution or revolution?
 
3:00
PM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
Analyst briefings, round 3, with different analysts, different topics.  
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Brian Seitz
Cyon Research
The Engineering of Software
We’ve been building software for decades. What began as a craft undertaken by individuals to solve distinct problems, has evolved to a guild practice with master craftsman and agile teams. Keeping our increasingly complex software robust to incremental change is a key challenge. Can we keep going in the direction we’ve come from, building more and more complex software? What are the alternatives? Is a new age of industrialization of software development occurring (as evident by the popularity of APPS and the Internet of Things). Several industry leaders are changing their practices to address continued trend of software commoditization. What is the next evolution in software development and operations?
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Martin Fischer
CIFE-Stanford
Software for Manufactured Construction
Manufactured construction requires software tools for designing the interfaces between building systems and components across levels of detail and disciplines, and for managing these interfaces. What can we take from the manufacturing industry to address this? What tools will still be missing?
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Bruce Jenkins
Ora Research
Is MBSE the Path to Exploiting the Value of Design-Space Exploration?
Design-space exploration (DSE) software is helping engineers conceive more design alternatives earlier in the design process, rapidly evaluating trade-offs, identifing the best designs, and then to optimize them. But much of its potential remains untapped. Will integration with model-based systems engineering (MBSE) frameworks be what unlocks DSE’s full power and value? What’s needed from DSE, MBSE, CAE, PLM software vendors to make this happen?
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Allan Behrens
Taxal Limited
The Business of Products
There is more to our customers’ businesses that the production of products. We have tools for managing relations with our customers; with our suppliers; tools for logistics; tools for managing manufacturing and production; tools for managing our product portfolios; Big Data and analytics; and more. What is the relationship between PLM and these other tools for the other aspects of our customers business? What role should PLM vendors play in reaching out to these other areas of our business? What can we do to help our customers derive more value from OUR products in this broader context? How does that change our relationship to our customer? How can we adapt our offerings (or even just messaging), in order to add value to our customer’s bottom line?
Margaret Loper  
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Margaret Loper
Georgia Tech Research Institute
The Intersection of Big Data, Cognitive Computing, and Design and Engineering
Big Data and Cognitive Computing are impacting both the design and engineering of products. This impact will become much more apparent within as little as 3 years. “Big Data” already enables analysis of customer preferences to influence design. When Machine Learning algorithms extract previously unrecognized patterns from Big Data, what will we learn and how will it impact the profession? What will cognitive computing take away from the job of the engineer (as the calculator did before it), and what will we gain in return? How should developers of software tools for design and engineering incorporate Big Data and Cognitive Computing in their thinking?
Oleg Shilovitsky  
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Oleg Shilovitsky
Beyond PLM
PLM and the Cloud
As recently as three years ago, the cloud was viewed as a differentiator for some PLM vendors. The PLM world was divided between those who viewed the cloud as “the future” and those who viewed it as a fad. Today, most PLM vendors touch the cloud or engage with it in some way. But... what has really changed? Where do we stand with the big questions/challenges with PLM? Can the cloud still be the source of a competitive differentiator for PLM vendors?

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Lee Miller
HOK
What’s Next After BIM?
Although BIM adoption has been accelerating for years, most practitioners will agree that we mired in the same problems from the past. Building information models are still created as files in proprietary formats and using proprietary data challenging interoperability at its very core. What is the future of BIM? We have a good idea of what works and what doesn’t. BIM was the next step beyond just architectural CAD. What’s the next step after BIM? What will drive the change? What will be required of the next BIM platform? What’s going to get in the way of making it happen?

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Ted Blacker
Sandia National Laboratories
Validation, Margins, and Quantification of Uncertainty
The effect of materials, loading, and environmental uncertainty on performance are each difficult to simulate. When you add the uncertainty of physics being employed in the codes (i.e., model uncertainty), it can be difficult to build trust in the calculation results. Validation and verification techniques should become the standard practice in the simulation world: EVERY simulation report should have accompanying error bars. How do we make predictive simulation happen? What recent approaches have been useful? What do we do with the opportunity that additive manufacturing and topology optimization provide in inverting the design process? How will the resulting significant role of material design/uncertainty and process uncertainty be addressed?
3:45
PM


 
Break
 
4:00
PM


 
First Congress: Maieutic Parataxis
Maieutic: The midwifery of knowledge.
Parataxis: The juxtaposition of ideas, without connection or conjunction

We will be hosting a series of five-minute vignettes drawn from topics and ideas that, while perhaps not yet fully formed, are likely to impact your thinking about how we design, build, and interact with software in the future.

Take a look at http://cofes.com/mp to see the Maieutic Parataxis presentations from previous COFES!  
5:15
PM
 
Free
5:45
PM
 
Buses leave The Scottsdale Plaza Resort for Evening Under the Stars
Buses will be leaving from the main entrance of The Scottsdale Plaza Resort*
 
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
6:30
PM


 
Evening Under the Stars
Arizona Wing     We're headed out into truly wide-open spaces and a sweeping view of the sky once again. For 2015, we're headed to Arizona Wing Commemorative Airforce, home to a B17G Flying Fortress and other planes of a bygone era. A great western cookout, and for those who want a closer look at the magnificent Arizona sky, we have a couple of major-league telescopes. A COFES highlight!
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event  
9:30
PM


 
Buses Leave the Evening Event for The Scottsdale Plaza Resort
We will return to the resort between 10:00 and 11:00 pm.

Saturday, April 18, 2015


8:00
AM


 
Breakfast
 
8:45
AM


 
Morning Kickoff
Your hosts will set the stage for the day’s activities.
9:00
AM


 
Keynote: Mark Anderson
 
Mark Anderson
INVNT/IP
Security, Risk, and Software: Protecting Crown Jewels from State-sponsored Theft
It is impossible to gauge risk levels in the protection of corporate secrets today without understanding the role of national business models built upon crown jewel IP theft. This approach underlines the difficulty of finding appropriate technology for preventing this escalating theft, and for engaging with such practices, from chips to network to software. Mark will describe our latest research into the causes and levels of effort behind large-scale state-sponsored APT attacks, discuss the mechanics and techniques contributing to high risk for inventing companies today, and reveal some of the work done by the INVNT/IP Global Consortium to reduce these threats.

If software cannot guarantee protection, what actions and policies can firms take to protect the crown jewels? Mark will discuss pragmatic ways to address the risk, including some of what he’s told the CIA and NSA.
Mark R. Anderson
Mark Anderson is the publisher of the SNS Global Report on Technology and the Economy , read by Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Vint Cerf, Michael Dell, Paul Allen, Paul Jacobs, Craig Venter, Bill Janeway, Robert Hormats, Leroy Hood, and technology executives and investors worldwide. He is also the founder and chair of the Future in Review (FiRe) Conference.

Mark's work includes the creation of: SNS Project Inkwell ; SNS Interactive News ; INVNT/IP (Inventing Nations vs. Nation-sponsored Theft of IP, a global consortium of corporations and government agencies; a new Global Rescue System (GRS) for victims of human trafficking; Orca Relief Citizens' Alliance; and Nutritional Microanalysis, a new field of medical research and practice aimed at connecting biochemical descriptions of food with health.

Mark is credited with accelerating the deployment of 3G wireless in Iceland, helping design Sweden's wireless auction process, assisting Eastern Germany's technology programs, creating the first post-911 manual for the US government on the use of technology to combat terror, and being the first to fully document the central role of stolen intellectual property in China's national business model. His successful predictions include the Great Recession of late 2007; the contemporary outbreak of "currency wars" and the first modern use of the term; the advent and success of the CarryAlong computer category as the fastest-growing and largest in the industry, now represented by pads and netbooks (in 1997); the first detailed description of the Internet Assistant category, currently represented by Siri, Google Now, and Dragon Go! (in 1998); and the global currency crisis of late 1997 (in April of that year).

Mark's intellectual contributions include: Resonance Theory, the first physics Theory Of Everything, based on the resonant properties of empty space; the AORTA (Always-On Real-Time Access) concept; Equilibrium Genetics, a new theory of evolution and genetic variation; the Global Trifecta, a solution set to slow global warming; and Flow Economics and Hyperstructural Economics, two new pragmatic descriptions of the forces behind the post-Information Age economy.

Mark is a frequent guest on National Public Radio's "All Things Considered," as well as the BBC World News and Bloomberg TV; and he regularly appears in the Economist, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and other media.
10:00
AM


 
Keynote: Bo Burlingham
 
Bo Burlingham
Inc. Magazine
Finish Big: How Great Entrepreneurs Exit Their Companies on Top
Bo will be discussing key points with surprising relevance to COFES participants, from his latest book, Finish Big, a COFES 2015 book club selection.
Bo Burlingham
Bo was our keynote speaker at COFES 2010. Bo Burlingham is an editor-at-large of Inc. magazine and the author of five books,the most recent being Finish Big: How Great Entrepreneurs Exit Their Companies on Top. His book Small Giants: Companies That Choose To Be Great Instead of Big was one of five finalists for the 2006 Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year award.

Bo joined Inc. in January 1983 as a senior editor and became executive editor six months later. In 1990, he resigned so that he could do more writing and became editor-at-large. Subsequently he wrote two books with Jack Stack, the co-founder and CEO of Springfield Remanufacturing Corp. and the pioneer of open-book management. One of the books, The Great Game of Business, has sold more than 300,000 copies. The other, A Stake in the Outcome, has been called “the first management classic of the new millennium.” Bo co-authors with Norm Brodsky the popular monthly column in Inc. called “Street Smarts,” which was the winner of a gold “AZBEE” award from the American Society of Business Publication Editors in 2008, and a finalist for a National Magazine Award in 2006 and 2008. Burlingham served on the board of The Body Shop Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of the international skin and hair care company, from 1992 to 1997.

Bo was also keynote speaker at COFES 2010.
10:45
AM


 
Break
 
11:00
AM


 
Discussions and Roundtables
Cyon Research investigates issues in engineering and design. That research forms the basis for the issue topics for these group discussions. Meeting rooms are set up in suites around the pool, each with a different issue to discuss. Also, meetings among groups with a common interest.

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Geometric Modeling in Transition?
    Geometric modeling has been in the background for a while. Customers often don’t know about the modeling kernels used by their design tools. It seems like a solved problem. Within the past year we’ve learned of at least four new kernels that have, or are about to, hit the market. What’s up with that? Why now? Where’s the opportunity to change the industry?

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Heads Up! (Big Changes are Sneaking Up on Us)
    Really big changes often happen slowly, but their cumulative impact can be disruptive. Some of these are trends we see far in advance, but ignore. Global warming and rising sea levels are two that we’ve caught too late in the game. Other changes, like the impact of gaming on graphics, we’ve benefited from without having to adapt. We heard about nanotechnology and genetic algorithms more than 10 years ago at COFES. Today we’re starting to see the effects of those innovations. Additive manufacturing is 30 years old, but only now is it disrupting our thinking about manufacturing. Cloud, search, translation, and other technologies are disrupting us even faster. On the immediate horizon are cognitive computing, IoT, analytics, predictive systems, and sentiment analysis. How will these transform us? How do we manage the disruptions that are approaching at greatly varying paces? What else is out there that we need to be looking out for?

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Leveling the Channel
    Software vendors don’t need the channel to push boxes anymore, mostly because there are no boxes to push. What vendors need are feet on the ground, interacting with their current and prospective customers, building relationships by meeting customer needs and solving customer problems. In the US, the most successful channel players have grown large enough to benefit from the economies of scale necessary to thrive in this service-centric business. Outside the US, the picture is quite different. How do you build economies of scale into your channel where the markets are hyper-local?

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It’s Not CAM Anymore
    CAM as we’ve known it isn’t really Computer-Aided Manufacturing, it’s really Software for Subtractive Manufacturing (SSM). SSM is a mature industry with great tools that meet our needs. What we don’t have yet is Software for Additive Manufacturing (SAM). For the first 30 years of AM we’ve relied on software tools designed with subtractive processes in mind to design objects for AM. And it’s been painful. There is an exploding opportunity to rethink almost all aspects of design when we are freed from the bounds of subtractive technologies. Now it’s time for software tools to unleash the potential of AM. Where are my tools for design of material properties? For design of intent? For analysis of non-traditional structures? We’ve just scratched the surface. How long will the new SAM market take to surpass SSM in market revenue?

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Analysis Before Geometry!
    We’ve talked for years about moving analysis to the early stages of design, where analysis can actually influence the design. That’s good, but not enough. We need to start talking about analysis and topology optimization before the geometry is even defined. We can do this with simulation-driven design and requirements-driven design, with simulation first, geometry later. The key is simulation, driven by fitness criteria and product requirements, prior to even thinking about geometry. What will we need to make this happen? Once we have these tools in hand, what changes will we need to make to our internal processes in order to reap the value?

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Goldilocks and the Cloud
    “The Cloud” is a co-mingling of many different concepts, including remoting, hoteling, virtualization, business model shift, federation, access anywhere, infinite computing, power on demand, pay-for-use, recentralization, on-premise/off-premise, and offloading of IT. Calling it all “the Cloud” makes good debate difficult. What aspects of “the Cloud” are right for a firm depends on the nature of the firm. Engineering software vendors have given us a variety of approaches to how they deliver their software. And the value or appropriateness of each of the many concepts of the Cloud are different for each firm. How do you define the right system architecture for your firm? What factors play in finding your firm’s Goldilocks zone?

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Will You Believe Your Simulation?
    Why build a simulation if you know from the outset that you won’t trust the results? Simulations are designed to reflect system design and predict system behavior, but there is always a mix of things that were left out of the simulation or were incorrectly represented in the simulation. How do you estimate your confidence in the results?

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Autonomous Systems
    Autonomous vehicles are making headlines. Autonomous systems make decisions and act on them, without human intervention. Few of us are working on autonomous systems today. That’s likely to change as we continue to add sensors, connectivity, and processing power, to formerly dumb products. A good example of this is the Roomba, which transformed the function of a vacuum cleaner. Self-flying drones are another. Which of our machines will become autonomous next? As we add degrees of freedom to our systems (and systems of systems), our risk goes up dramatically. What simulation tools do we need to support the design of autonomous systems? How do our other tools fit in? How do we address issues of risk, uncertainty, the potential for unforeseen conditions, etc.? How do we build systems that learn and adapt?

12:30
PM


 
Lunch
 
2:00
PM


 
Discussions and Roundtables, Round 2
A second set of 90-minute discussions.

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BIM as a Teenager
    Thirteen years ago, the AEC world settled on “BIM” as term to describe where AEC software was headed. We’ve been traveling down that road for 13 years now and for some, BIM has been transformative. But for the industry as a whole, we’ve still yet to unlock a large amount of the value that BIM can bring. What are the key developments we’re likely to see as BIM matures? Many are still stuck in the same processes they used prior to BIM. What can we do to help them make the transformation necessary to fully embrace BIM?

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Consumer Apps and the Design and Engineering Software Market
    Consumers are used to apps on tap. Have a quick need? There’s an app for that. The prospect of reaching hundreds of millions of consumers with games and handy tools opens the door to building both a community and a relationship with the customer. If even a small percentage end up relying on that relationship when choosing professional tools, the potential numbers will be staggering. And businesses are being influenced by what is being learned in the consumer app space. The value of rapid development “knowledge turns” is also changing the way software developers think about how they design software. What other impacts will we see as more vendors dive deeper into the consumer app space?

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Avoiding Metrics-Driven Torque
    Metrics drive behavior. We develop metrics so we can measure change. The rapid advancement of analytics tools is making metrics even more important. But no metric is perfect and too often metrics are not perfectly in line with our goals. The difference between our goals and the line of what we are actually measuring puts a figurative torque on our system, tending to drive us away from the change we are trying to achieve. A good example of this is our metrics for prosperity, which are invariably tied to growth. But we can prosper without growing, and there are limits to growth. How do we rethink our metrics to compensate for that misalignment, hopefully to sum into a zero-torque result? What metrics can be applied to innovation? What about sustainability? How do we measure success without torque-induced side effects?

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Business Model Disruption: What Am I Paying For?
    Until the Cloud, we had “Pay for Access” -- you had to buy the software to use it. This transitioned into “Pay for Maintenance” – you had to pay to keep current. With the Cloud, much of what you formerly had to pay for to access can be accessed free of charge. We’ve seen ad-supported software, freemium, and most recently Onshape’s “Pay for Privacy” business models. Business model transitions are notoriously disruptive, particularly for public companies, for whom stability (of revenue and profit) must maintain the quarterly beat. How do these new software business models change the relationship between the vendor and customer? How are businesses adjusting to these changes? What other changes might we see?

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Transaction-Based vs State-Based
    When you make a charge on your credit card or write a check, a note is made in a database about that transaction. There is continuous thread of transactions, from the time you open your account to the moment of your last transaction. The “state” or balance of your account varies from transaction to transaction, but you can always track where you are from where you’ve been. Unlike your bank account, your design tools typically don’t carry information about how the design got to the state it is currently in. Sure, there’s some level of undo, but that’s extremely limited. There is a lot of value in this “state-based” design, but there is also a great deal of value in the idea of a transaction-based design tool. Design tools on the market today that are transaction-based are often not promoted as such, even though this is the enabler of much of their strategic advantage. Much fuss is made, however, when transaction-based systems eschew the internal need for file systems. What are the real advantages/disadvantages of transaction-base and state-based systems? Will more of our design tools move to transaction-based? What are the key issues?

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Hacking the Internet of Things
    The hacking of Sony Pictures and the explosion of “ransomware” that can take over a workstation and encrypt all its files without the user’s permission underscores how woefully inadequate internet security has become. If engineering software in the Cloud and an Internet of Things are to be realized, technologies must be developed to prevent theft of data and intentionally damaging systems. How do you prevent a pacemaker from being hacked? Or a valve in an automated control system? We’re all at risk here. IoT complicates the risk equation. We may need to provide our customers with tools for designing security into their IoT connected products. Otherwise, they may suffer the consequences and liabilities of lack of security. Does anyone have a clue how to we address this and solve these security problems?

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Growing Design
    At COFES 2004 we heard John Koza talk about genetic algorithms. A key takeaway from his keynote was transforming the process of design from the process of explicitly defining an object, to designing the benchmark for what defines a “success” for the design: the “fitness” test. At the time, that proven process seemed unlikely to become a tool for practicing designers or engineers. But since that time, several developments have pushed us towards this transformation. Design optimization from our analysis tools has been effective in showing how we might tweak our designs. Only recently have we been able to let those tools run wild, as additive manufacturing is enabling our ability to construct previously unmanufacturable shapes. Generative design – designing the formula and relationship of parts without the need to explicitly define the entire object (or building) – has also become a familiar tool. We are on the verge of achieving that transformation from explicit design to design of intent. A key part of this is will be tools for the design of material properties. Where are this and other developments headed? How fast will the developments on the bleeding edge of the technology move into the mainstream. How will that transform the nature of the software tools we use for design and engineering?

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Next Steps for ASSESS
    What’s next for ASSESS? A hand-picked group of 40 key leaders participated in the Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Summit (ASSESS) at the Santa Fe Institute earlier this year. They kicked off a conversation long overdue. There is a community of developers, customers, academics, and others who need a nexus to gather and discuss important issues of analysis, simulation, and systems engineering. We’re proposing to make ASSESS accessible to a broader audience, as a symposium. What should the Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Symposium look like? What are the keys to making ASSESS into something you need to engage in?

3:30
PM


 
Break
 
3:45
PM


 
Second Congress: The Business of Design and Engineering
Brad Holtz
Brad Holtz
Cyon Research
  Jim Brown Jim Brown
Tech-Clarity
 
This working congress session is an open forum for examining the issues surrounding technologies expected to have an impact on the business of design and engineering. The purpose of these discussions is to examine current issues, explore opportunities for a brighter future, consider approaches, and promote further dialogue. The focus for COFES 2015 will center on two topics.

The first is the theme for COFES 2015: Stepping Back to See the Big Picture
The second will be the takeaways from the COFES roundtables and briefings.    
5:15
PM
Free
5:30
PM
Reception
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
6:30-
9:00
PM


 
Dinner and Awards
Dinner and the closing session of COFES, including The CAD Society Industry Awards.*
 
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event 

Sunday, April 19, 2015


6:30-
8:30
AM


 
Early Riser's Breakfast
For golfers and those with early flights
8:30-
10:30
AM
Sunday Brunch
Sunday Brunch Poolside at the Cafe Cabana

Relax and enjoy the morning!
 
10:30
AM


 
Special Session: A Chat with a Dr. Joel Orr
Joel Orr   On Sunday at COFES we invite a special guest to spend the morning with us discussing the ways of the world with those who still have an opportunity to change it—US! For 2015, that guest is Dr. Joel Orr.

We hope you'll be able to join us.

My Life in CAD: Expertise + Humor

My life is funny. Or at least, when I try to recount my odyssey from Brooklyn to Israel to Puerto Rico to Israel to a Long Island commune, to pioneering the world of municipal GIS, to founding the first computer graphics conference, to starting the first computer graphics magazine, to heading the National Computer Graphics Association, to founding COFES with Brad and Evan... (whew! and lots more), certain jokes keep popping up.   The term “bisociation” was coined to illustrate the combinatorial nature of creativity. It's my favorite explanation for why the explosive, rearrange-everything nature of humor is essential to creativity and technological progress.   In his “fireside” chat, Joel will discuss CAD and life, tell some jokes, all wrapped in stories designed to help you re-pattern your mind without losing it, to better equip you to surf confidently into the future.

All COFES Interns will take part as equal participants with the other COFES attendees.  
 
12:30
PM


 
Insights from our Interns
Each year at the end of COFES we sit down with the students who intern at COFES. This engaging and wide-ranging discussion has been incredibly enlightening--perhaps for them, but even more so for us. These next-generation leaders have much to contribute.

All COFES Interns will take part as equal participants with the other COFES attendees.