Agenda

Thursday, April 6, 2017

8:00
AM
Registration and Badge Pick-up Opens

Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits); shirts with collars; sandals or sneakers. Shorts are okay.  

8:30
AM
-
3:00
PM
The DaS Symposium

The Design and Sustainability Symposium: Exploring the intersection of design, simulation, and sustainability for the built (AEC) and manufactured environment. DaS = Design and Sustainability. The goal of the DaS Symposium is to bring sustainability to the forefront of the conversation among software developers. What is relevant to the sustainability conversation? Where are the opportunities and what are the issues that we should address as an industry, rather than as individual companies? We hope to inspire, raise awareness, build relationships and seek sustainable synergies. Founding members of The DaS Symposium include Autodesk, buildingSMART Alliance, CIFE, Cyon Research, Gensler, PTC, Siemens, SolidWorks, and Sustainable Minds.Details here.

10:00
AM
C3D Labs Customer Get Together
C3D Labs invites current and potential customers and partners to join them in a celebration honoring 20 years of C3D development. We’ll of course show you the latest of our offerings, including the new 2017 C3D Toolkit. Be part of the conversation, and meet and discuss with other C3D customers.
1:00
PM
Tech Soft 3D HOOPSapalooza
Current and potential Tech Soft 3D customers are invited to this casual event where you won’t see any PowerPoints – rather, you’ll be treated to tech demos of the latest and greatest HOOPS SDK technology, networking with new and old friends, all while enjoying handcrafted beers from Bend, Oregon. As a software toolkit provider, Tech Soft 3D aggregates the needs of hundreds of leading engineering companies, making it a bellwether of the industry at large.
3:00 -
3:50
PM


 
Special Session: World Update
Peter Thorne Peter Thorne
Cambashi
  Chris Turner
Business Advantage Group
 
For 2017, we're treated to a deep dive into Cambashi's fine grain detail of its global sales data for our industry, followed by a teaser of results from a joint research project from Jon Peddie Research and Business Advantage Group on Cloud sentiment and activities.

 
This is an informal session. Lots of information, but also lots of interaction and discussion.

Open to all COFES Attendees and their guests.
4:00 -
5:45
PM


 
Special Session: Report from ASSESS:  Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies
Joe Walsh Joe Walsh
IntrinSIM
Keith Meintjes Keith Meintjes
CIMdata
Chris Wilkes Chris Wilkes
Sigmetrix
Hubertus Tummescheit Hubertus Tummescheit
Modelon
Hubertus Tummescheit John Chawner
Pointwise
 
ASSESS (Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies) was formed to identify and resolve the issues that confront simulation software and the simulation software industry as we move beyond the recent economic crash and face new and complex challenges. The ASSESS Initiative team will present and update findings, and action items from seven working groups of the ASSESS Initiative.
6:00 -
8:00
PM


 
Business Reception and Technology Suite Open House   Spouse & Guest Only Dinner 
Opening business reception. First formal opportunity for COFES Newbies to meet their Hosts. Technology Suites have been set up for you to discuss corporate direction, business development, and potential partnerships. They are NOT demo rooms—the vendors are here to talk, not sell. This is your opportunity to sign up for appointment time slots.

Music, food and refreshments.

*Restricted to COFES 2017 Attendees. Their spouses and guests are invited to a spouse- and guest-only dinne and may join them later at the Welcome Reception.  
While COFES Attendees are at their business reception, their spouses and guests will be treated to dinner, with cooking demonstration and wine pairing, before they join us in the welcome reception at 8 pm. Enjoy the food, refreshments, and music in a relaxed setting.

*Open only to badged spouses/guests of COFES 2017 attendees.  
8:00 -
10:00
PM


 
COFES 2017 Opening Intro and Welcome Reception 
Welcome, introductions, orientation and schedule. Spouses will join us after their dinner for this evening social.

Music, food and refreshments.

*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and must be wearing their badges during the event.  

Friday, April 7, 2017


7:30
AM


 
Introductions and Breakfast
Each COFES attendee from the user community is assigned a leading industry analyst who will act as their host for the event. The host's primary responsibility is to make sure that you get the most value possible out of the event and introduce you to key industry players. Plan to meet your host/introducer for breakfast.  
Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits or jackets); shirts with or without collars ; sandals or sneakers. Shorts are fine, too.
 
8:15
AM


 
Kickoff: Opening Session and Call to Order
Your hosts, Cyon Research, will set the stage for the day's activities.  
8:45
AM


 
Keynote: Melanie Mitchell
 
Melanie Mitchell
Santa Fe Institute & Portland State University
Complexity
Mitchell will look at the nature of complexity and its implications.
Melanie Mitchell
Melanie Mitchell is Professor of Computer Science at Portland State University, and External Professor and Member of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. She attended Brown University, where she majored in mathematics and did research in astronomy, and the University of Michigan, where she received a Ph.D. in computer science. Her dissertation, in collaboration with her advisor Douglas Hofstadter, was the development of Copycat, a computer program that makes analogies. She has held faculty or professional positions at the University of Michigan, the Santa Fe Institute, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the OGI School of Science and Engineering, and Portland State University. She is the author or editor of five books and over 80 scholarly papers in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and complex systems. Her most recent book, Complexity: A Guided Tour, won the 2010 Phi Beta Kappa Science Book Award. It was also named by Amazon.com as one of the ten best science books of 2009, and was longlisted for the Royal Society's 2010 book prize. Melanie originated the Santa Fe Institute's Complexity Explorer project, which offers online courses and other educational resources related to the field of complex systems.
10:00
AM


 
Technology Suite Briefings 

The following have committed to participate in COFES 2017 with Technology Suites as of February 23, 2017:
 
ASSESS Initiative
Joe Walsh
Co-Founder
Update on the ASSESS Initiative
The ASSESS (Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies) Initiative brings together key players to facilitate a revolution of enablement that will vastly increase the availability and utility of Engineering Simulation across the full spectrum of industries, applications and users. This will be an update on that how the ASSESS Initiative is making progress on that mission.
 
Richard Marshall  
Data on ACiD
Ricky Ricardo
Founder
Self-Decrypting Systems
Protection of IP requires the human-element be taken out of the equation. It’s now feasible to use unique derivatives of quantum numbers to ensure a truly random, patternless encryption. Such a system can identify rightful owners of IP and reject all others. If you can see your IP what keeps anyone else from also seeing it? How do you protect data against hacking? How can quantum numbers protect data? How do you protect data easily and reliably?
 
Scott Foster
Hans-Peter Plag
Director, Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute
  Mark Anderson Lee Hall
Principal
 
E2MS: Earth Energy Monitoring System
The Power of Flows
The Earth Energy Monitoring System (E2MS) uses the “Power of Flow” as an observational tool in, order to visualize flows of energy in to, out of, and throughout the planet. E2MS is dedicated to reducing uncertainty through the monitoring of energy flow through and about our planet and its life support systems. What happens to the earth's natural energy flows when energy flows from human activities are considered? How do we improve our models and understanding? What might happen if we could consume and analyze much of the Earth’s massive data sensor networks in real time? What would it take to do that?
 
 
ParaMatters
Michael Bogomolny
CTO
Matter Compiler?
Can we compile materials by demand, even if they do not exist in nature? See how ParaMatters generate meta-materials designed to achieve custom properties.
 
Scott Foster
Michael Buchli
Product Manager
  Mark Anderson Craig Therrien
Product Manager
 
SolidWorks
Reducing Complexity in Product Development by Transforming the Traditional Design to Manufacturing Workflow
For years, companies have survived with a separation between their design and manufacturing departments. The separation was both by organization, and by the tools they used. But now with the need to produce designs faster, with higher quality and at lower costs, companies are looking to streamline their design to manufacturing workflows, as well as their organizations. We’ll discuss how these changes are affecting our industry, as well as some companies that are on the forefront of this revolution.
 
 
TimeLike Systems
Steve Coy
President
What would it take to create "The Matrix"?
Some serious thinkers have argued that what we perceive as reality may actually be a computer simulation. In this discussion we'll consider just what it would take to implement such a hyper-realistic simulation. Along the way, we'll touch on many of the most fundamental issues and challenges in computer modeling and simulation.
 
11:00
AM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
We've invited some of the brightest and most talented thinkers, analysts and users, to each lead a working discussion on an issue they view as critical. These discussions are strictly limited to no more than 24 people at a time.
 
Melanie Mitchell
Santa Fe Institute & Portland State University
Keynote Session
An interactive discussion on the topics raised in her Friday keynote.
Halpern~Marc_88w.jpg  
Marc Halpern
Gartner
The Future of Product(s)
A perfect storm of technological, cultural and demographic change is revolutionizing the definition, design, promotion, sales, service, and renewal of products. These changes are having a serious impact on what is expected of their engineering IT and PLM platforms. What has changed in what we expect from products? How will each of the cloud, IoT, digital twin, digital thread, ecosystem/platform strategies, etc. impact on product definitions and product lifecycles? What is the net effect of these technologies taken together? What is the opportunity for engineering to lead the changes (to corporate culture, organizations, priorities, and processes) for this to be a successful transition?
Meintjes~Keith_88w.jpg  
Keith Meintjes
CIMdata
From Topology Optimization to Manufactured Product: Reshaping the Whole Shebang
There is increasing excitement about the potential to marry additive manufacturing with generative design, enabling a new product development paradigm. The current path of product design through development doesn’t make sense in this new paradigm – the interfaces between the various tools do not work well together. Far too much expertise is demanded of the end user, and they don’t have the right metaphors build it. What we need is to harmonize geometry treatments and definitions among Topology Optimization, CAD, and CAE. How do we make that happen? We probably need to redefine what “proper” documentation of the product design is required here. Are we ready for that change? And what does validation mean in this new context?
Brown~Jim_88w.jpg  
Jim Brown
Tech Clarity
The Transformation of PLM
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) has undergone a number of significant evolutions over time. Some would argue that early PLM was really just used Product Data Management. They might say that PLM has expanded beyond Engineering. Others would point out that the value available from more enterprise and supply-chain centric solutions were not Engineering-centric in the first place. But where is PLM going now? What do today’s Product Innovation Platforms mean to the future of PLM? How will PLM integration with design tools change over time? How do initiatives like Industry 4.0 and IoT impact PLM direction?
Throne~Peter_88w.jpg  
Peter Thorne
Cambashi
Pattern Recognition for Engineering
Soon, advances in computer architectures will enable pattern-recognition algorithms to run several orders of magnitude faster than they do on today’s architectures. Obvious applications for pattern recognition include human faces and price movements in financial securities and commodities. But how might faster pattern recognition be applied to engineering design and manufacturing processes? Vehicle dynamics, layout of retailing spaces, and manufacturing-defect avoidance come to mind. Might pattern recognition also displace conventional FEA and shape optimization? How else might this change things?
Smith~Deke_88w.jpg  
Deke Smith
Cyon Research
Shifting from Cost to Benefit
In the AEC industry, most firms still remain focused on reducing first cost, rather than taking the longer-term view of reducing their Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). The reasons many forego the larger benefit that TCO offers, lie in the economic infrastructure of the AEC Industry. As a whole, we are ALL better off if we can afford to optimize for the long term. One way to get there is to change thinking form TCO to Total Benefit of Ownership (TBO), because in the end, cost is only one part of the equation. What’s interesting is that when we shift the conversation from Cost to Benefit, we can also start accounting for benefits that don’t otherwise appear on the books. This includes both the benefit of the asset to the company and to society in general. By focusing on benefit, organizations can make better strategic decisions for the future of their company. What’s involved in making this transition? What are the implications? How does this apply in areas other than AEC?
Deragisch~Bob_88w.jpg  
Bob Deragisch
Parker Hannifin
Simulation-Driven Design
Geometry is king. Or is it? We have been focused on ‘starting with’ Geometry, since the inception of CAD. But many believe that CAD is only documentation – the real nature of the product can be better expressed by the physics of the product, and the mathematics that describe the physics. So should we really be looking to develop product designs that are based on geometry? Or should we start with the ANALYSIS and physics of the targeted products, and let SIMULATION drive the design (and thereby generate the documentation, including the geometry)? What will we be leaving behind when we change to looking at CAD as ‘merely documentation’?
Boucher~Michelle_88w.jpg  
Michelle Boucher
Tech Clarity
Transforming Design with New Approaches to Materials
Traditional approaches to manufacturing and materials unexpectedly constrain innovation. The context of subtractive processes and their metaphors are only part of this. Advancements in new materials and design of material properties have begun to remove these constraints, making it possible for design criteria to drive material properties rather than the materials driving the design. We can even design materials based on engineering criteria. How do we begin to take advantage of this? What tools are needed to support this and the required decisions? What capabilities are needed in simulation and CAD tools to support this?
12:00
Noon


 
Analyst and User Briefings
Analyst and user briefings, round 2, with different analysts, different topics.
Marshall~Richard_88w.jpg  
Richard Marshall
Secure Exchange Technology Innovations
Security, IP, and Collaboration
Richard Marshall, former general counsel for the NSA, has spent his career dealing with security and its implications. The NSA has just as much need to collaborate with other agencies as your engineering firm has a need to collaborate with its partners and supply chain. Could techniques employed by the NSA be used by our industry to protect our crown jewel IP? Where are we at risk? What technologies and processes are coming on line to help us with this challenge?
Vlahinos~Andreas_88w.jpg  
Andreas Vlahinos
Advanced Engineering Solutions
Optimizing Workflows for Design for Additive Manufacture
Topology Optimization Process (TOP) is used to reduce weight while maintaining strength in items that are constructed by additive manufacturing (AM). The main bottleneck in TOP is the conversion of the output from topology optimization to a CAD-ready form. Lattice structures (and other complex volumes) make this even more challenging. How do we remove the bottleneck? What tools do we need to unleash the full potential of AM? Do we need CAD in order to smooth, repair and manipulate the rough output of TOP? What other tools might be employed? How do we validate and verify for aerospace applications? Do we even need CAD into the loop?
Jackson~Chad_88w.jpg  
Chad Jackson
Lifecycle Insights
IoT, Complexity, and Systems Engineering
The design of IoT-enabled products must contend with difficult interdependent requirements for hardware, electronics and software. These products must also behave in an ever-evolving environment of other external products and software. We have one discipline, not too often mentioned in the IoT discussion that can help us with this complexity: Systems Engineering. Where does Systems Engineering fit in the IoT development process? What can Systems Engineering do to bring to the complexity of IoT under some semblance of control?
Tardif~Michael_88w.jpg  
Michael Tardif
Building Informatics
It’s a Messy World
When we apply technological solutions to a problem, we often fail to address the real, underlying problems. Much of this is due to the “messiness” of the real-world problem. This is a severe challenge, particularly in complex domains such as AEC. Complexity is at the heart of that real-world messiness. As we design software, how do we avoid applying solutions that depend on oversimplifying messiness? What paths can we find for solutions that embrace the complexity of the real world?
Behrens~Allan_88w.jpg  
Allan Behrens
Taxal Limited
Transitioning for the Service-Led Economy
Intelligent and connected products have revolutionized company operational practices. Chief among this is the seismic economic shift from a capital economy to a service-led economy. In other words, a shift from an outlay of investment capital for making purchases, to an operational expense for rental of the service that [the prior purchase] provides. This change is incredibly disruptive to supply chains and distribution channels. What does the channel look like when this transition is complete? How must suppliers and channel partners adapt their offerings to address this shift? How does this change the needs (and ownership) of their customers?
Vleeschhouwer~Jay_88w.jpg  
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Griffin Securities
The View from Wall Street
Jay will review the performance of the technical software companies and industry, and their prospects for 2018 and beyond. Formerly a senior analyst and managing director with Merrill Lynch, Jay is now the senior research analyst at Griffin Securities. This will be his 16th annual review of the industry at COFES, and your only opportunity to see him in something besides a business suit.
Wolfe~Steve_88w.jpg  
Steve Wolfe
CAD/CAM Publishing
Pattern Recognition Applications in Mechanical, Electrical, and Structural Engineering
Within a decade, advances in computer architectures will enable pattern-recognition algorithms to run several orders of magnitude faster than they do on today’s computing systems. Obvious applications for pattern recognition include human faces and price movements in financial securities and commodities. But how might faster pattern recognition be applied to engineering design and manufacturing processes? Vehicle dynamics, layout of retailing spaces, and manufacturing-defect avoidance come to mind. Might pattern recognition also displace conventional FEA and shape optimization?
1:00
PM


 
Lunch
 
2:15
PM


 
Technology Suite Briefings 
Round 2 of Technology Suite briefings.  
 
ASSESS Initiative
Joe Walsh
Co-Founder
Update on the ASSESS Initiative
The ASSESS (Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies) Initiative brings together key players to facilitate a revolution of enablement that will vastly increase the availability and utility of Engineering Simulation across the full spectrum of industries, applications and users. This will be an update on that how the ASSESS Initiative is making progress on that mission.
 
Richard Marshall  
Data on ACiD
Ricky Ricardo
Founder
Self-Decrypting Systems
Protection of IP requires the human-element be taken out of the equation. It’s now feasible to use unique derivatives of quantum numbers to ensure a truly random, patternless encryption. Such a system can identify rightful owners of IP and reject all others. If you can see your IP what keeps anyone else from also seeing it? How do you protect data against hacking? How can quantum numbers protect data? How do you protect data easily and reliably?
 
Scott Foster
Hans-Peter Plag
Director, Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute
  Mark Anderson Lee Hall
Principal
 
E2MS: Earth Energy Monitoring System
The Power of Flows
The Earth Energy Monitoring System (E2MS) uses the “Power of Flow” as an observational tool in, order to visualize flows of energy in to, out of, and throughout the planet. E2MS is dedicated to reducing uncertainty through the monitoring of energy flow through and about our planet and its life support systems. What happens to the earth's natural energy flows when energy flows from human activities are considered? How do we improve our models and understanding? What might happen if we could consume and analyze much of the Earth’s massive data sensor networks in real time? What would it take to do that?
 
 
ParaMatters
Sergei Azernikov
CEO
Ultimate Performance Lightweighting
Leveraging HPC and advances in AI, ParaMatters is taking Topology Optimization to the next level. What are they really doing? How do they do it? What are the implications?
 
Scott Foster
Bill Brothers
Business Development Executive
  Mark Anderson Nicolas Tillet
Product Portfolio Manager
 
SIMULIA
Improving Product Performance in the Face of Increasing Complexity
The technology for simulating the complexity and resulting emergent behaviors of real-world products is traditionally the domain of experts. Over the years, there have been many promises to make these powerful ‘virtual testing’ tools more accessible, usable, and beneficial to more people throughout product development process. Today, we are closer to achieving this elusive goal through tools for; design simulation, optimization, process capture, model-based systems engineering, decision analytics, and more. Join us to discuss how companies can prepare to leverage ‘Model-based, Data-driven’ processes that enables everyone to contribute towards achieving sustainable innovation and business growth.
 
 
TimeLike Systems
Steve Coy
President
Fast and accurate?! How surrogate models can offer the best of both worlds.
A surrogate model is a fast-running computer model designed to yield simulation results approximating those that would be obtained with a slower-running high fidelity model of some system. We will discuss how surrogate models can be automatically generated, directly from the high fidelity model, with known error bars, and how surrogate models can be used to dramatically speed up design space exploration and design optimization.
 
3:15
PM


 
Analyst and User Briefings
Analyst briefings, round 3, with different analysts, different topics.  
Yares~Evan_88w.jpg  
Evan Yares
Cyon Research
Microservices Architectures for Engineering Software
How can engineering software be transformed to accommodate ever growing complexity? It may be through modern application architectures based on microservices and containers. Microservices allow monolithic applications to be decomposed into simple services. Containers allow those services to be efficiently deployed on the public cloud, in private data centers, or even on local machines. What are the strengths and weaknesses of a microservices architectures? Is it practical to refactor legacy applications using microservices and containers, or is it necessary to start from scratch?
Blacker~Ted_88w.jpg  
Ted Blacker
Sandia National Laboratories
The Transformation Away from CAD
Over the past 50 years, engineering and design shifted from drafting boards to computer-aided design (CAD). Today we’re at the beginning of the next shift. Some of this shift starts with “generative” design, driven in part by rapid advances in simulation and compute power. Other parts of this shift are enabled by the metaphors of additive manufacturing. AI/cognitive computing is playing a role here as well. The transition from drafting boards to CAD was disruptive – what will be disrupted/enabled by this next transformation? What do we need to do to prepare for, enable and take advantage of this shift?
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Tom Pennino
TP Technologies
The Transformation of EDA and the Consolidation of the PLM Market
The explosion of electronics in mechanical systems -- most prominent in automobiles, aircraft and leading IoT consumer products -- is having its impact on the CAD and EDA software markets. Siemens just acquired Mentor Graphics – will the EDA and PLM markets end up converging via future M&A? What’s the impact on this for customers? Where are there other strong synergies? What are the implications of that trend for the traditional PLM vendors?
Ring~Jack_88w.jpg  
Jack Ring
Cyon Research
Architecture and Complexity
Individual products, with their services and ecosystems, have dramatically increased in number and type of components and interactions. Each has become a system; and within each system, the relationship and interactions are architectural structures that matter. What are we doing to support the design of the architecture of products-service-data-ecosystems? Where do Agile, 6-Sigma, Just-in-Time and other management philosophies fit in the context of increasingly complex systems? How does system architecture fit in this mix? Who takes the lead?
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Martin Fischer
CIFE-Stanford
Complexity and Transformation for the Built Environment
Complexity without feedback loops is a recipe for problems. While digital advancements continue to add to the complexity of building projects, they also allow a better understanding of the complexity in those projects. Unlike the manufacturing industry, the AEC industry has few feedback loops in place. Where are there opportunities for feedback loops in AEC? What is the role of trust in a complex sector designed around adversarial business relationships? How do we transform AEC education to support these transitions?
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Chris De Neef
Fast Track Consulting
Culture Trumps All. Memes Drive Culture
Culture is the sum of the behaviors, convictions, principles and thoughts of the organization's members, and to some degree its clients, partners and suppliers. Culture is not static – it evolves. We can drive culture slowly by changing (individual) behaviors. We can also expand culture virally by cultivating and nurturing the memes that embody the new normal. What is your company’s culture? Does it serve your business model? If not, what would? How do we nurture the memes we want to drive our culture? How do we influence individual behaviors to get the culture best serving the future of our business?
Verrilli~Ralph_88w.jpg  
Ralph Verrilli
Madison Park Group
M&A Transformations
It doesn't matter which side of M&A you’re on – exit strategies or growth through acquisitions, the landscape has become increasingly more complex. What are the trends that are changing the M&A landscape in the engineering tools markets? What might these transformations look like, and how do we expect them to evolve?
Herron~Jennifer_88w.jpg  
Scott Leemans
[X]
Big Compute: Transitioning the Possible to the Practical
Two dimensions of big compute: What’s happening at the bleeding edge of the possible? And what’s happening in the realm of the practical? Gibson’s quote, “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed” exposes that difference between the possible and the practical. Big Compute has the potential to shorten the distance between the what’s possible and what’s useful for everyday design and engineering. In the consumer space, Siri and Alexa have made that transition, as have useful translators. What about the design and engineering space? What’s out there that easy access to Big Compute can enable to make the jump to practical? What do we want to see? What will be game changers?
4:30
PM


 
First Congress: Maieutic Parataxis
Maieutic: The midwifery of knowledge.
Parataxis: The juxtaposition of ideas, without connection. or conjunction

We will be hosting a series of five-minute vignettes drawn from topics and ideas that, while perhaps not yet fully formed, are likely to impact your thinking about how we design, build and interact with software in the future.

Take a look at http://cofes.com/mp to see the Maieutic Parataxis presentations!  
6:15
PM
 
Buses leave The Scottsdale Plaza Resort for Evening Under the Stars
Buses will be leaving from the main entrance of The Scottsdale Plaza Resort*
 
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
6:45
PM


 
Evening Under the Stars
Arizona Wing     We’re headed out into truly wide-open spaces and a sweeping view of the sky once again. For 2017, we’re headed back to Los Cedros, a Moroccan citadel for Arabian horses. A great western cookout, and for those who want a closer look at the magnificent Arizona sky, we have a couple of major-league telescopes. A COFES highlight!
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event  
9:30
PM


 
Buses Leave the Evening Event for The Scottsdale Plaza Resort
We will return to the resort between 10:00 and 11:00 pm.

Saturday, April 8, 2017


8:00
AM


 
Breakfast
 
8:45
AM


 
Morning Kickoff
Your hosts will set the stage for the day’s activities.
9:00
AM


 
Keynote: Through the Eyes of Data
Discern
Harry Blount
Discern
 
Through the Eyes of Data
Big data is revolutionizing competitive advantage in ways that we are only beginning to understand. Who are the likely winners and losers in the world of big data?
 
Harry Blount
Investment research industry veteran Harry Blount formed the DISCERN founding team, building on more than 20 years of executive and financial experience on Wall Street, including senior roles at Lehman Brothers, Credit Suisse First Boston, Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette, and CIBC Oppenheimer. Harry has been named an Institutional Investor All-American in both Information Technology Hardware and Internet Infrastructure Services, and The Wall Street Journal has recognized him as an All-Star covering the Computer Hardware sector. Harry also lent his expertise to the National Academy of Sciences where he served as a member of the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; and to The Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose, where he chaired the Futures Committee. Harry graduated from the University of Wisconsin – La Crosse in 1986 with a B.S. in Finance.
9:50
AM


 
Keynote: Business Implications of the New International Political Landscape
Scott Foster
Scott Foster
TAP Japan
  Mark Anderson Mark Anderson
Strategic News Service
 
Business Implications of the New International Political Landscape
Our new political landscape is much less stable than it once was. Between Putin, Brexit, Trump, et al., we are facing large global disruptions. Join Mark and Scott in an exploration of how these current disruptions are likely to impact your business.
 
Scott Foster
Scott Foster, a native of Oregon, is a partner at TAP Japan, a financial consultancy based in Tokyo; and alliance partner at Translink, a multinational corporate finance network headquartered in Europe. He previously worked for Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and other investment banks as a research analyst covering electronics, alternative energy, engineering, and other sectors in Japan and Korea. He first met Mark Anderson when he wandered up from the docks to visit the Whale Museum in Friday Harbor in 1979.

Scott's most recent book, Stealth Japan, dives into the realties of Japan's global business footprint, dispelling many myths along the way.

Scott holds a BA from Stanford University (1976) and an MA from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (1982).


Mark R. Anderson
Mark Anderson is CEO of Strategic News Service (SNS) and publisher of the SNS Global Report on technology and the global economy, CEO of SNS Conference Corp., Chairman of the Future in Review (FiRe) conference, founding CEO of Coventry Computer, Chairman of INVNT/IP (Inventing Nations vs. Nation-sponsored Theft of IP), Chairman of Orca Relief Citizens Alliance, and co-founder of the Pattern Recognition Lab at UC San Diego; and plays a key role in SNS Project Inkwell, Nutritional Microanalysis, SNS FiReBooks, and the SNS FiReFilms and Global Carbon Trifecta initiatives. With a 94.5% accuracy rate since 1995 looking 3-5 years into the future, Mark’s successes include being the first to fully document the central role of stolen IP in China’s national business model, as well as predicting the Great Financial Collapse of late 2007, the contemporary outbreak of “currency wars,” the advent and success of the CarryAlong computer and the Internet Assistant, and the Global Currency Crisis of late 1997. He is the only person to have publicly predicted both the Great Financial Collapse and the Oil Price Collapse, the two most important economic events of modern times. Mark is also a frequent public speaker and corporate consultant and appears regularly in US and international media.

He also currently serves as the founding CEO of Coventry Computer.
11:00
AM


 
Discussions and Roundtables
Cyon Research investigates issues in engineering and design. That research forms the basis for the issues & topics for these group discussions. Meeting rooms are set up in suites around the pool, each with a different issue to discuss. Also, meetings among groups with a common interest. Check out http://cofes.com/audio to listen to the roundtables from COFES 2016 and earlier.

Applying Machine Learning to Design & Engineering
    Machine learning is the domain of programming where computers are taught to learn tasks without having been explicitly programmed to perform them. It is already having an impact on our lives, via applications ranging from automated translation, fraud detection, and Amazon recommendations, to self-driving cars. What happens when we start applying machine learning to design and engineering? While we’re a long way from “Siri, design me a widget,” we’re not that far from having a system that can provide a running conversation and commentary on the decisions made in the design process. What do we want here? Where should we drive it? Who should be in control of the creation of such systems? How far are we from the time when NOT using such as system could be considered professional negligence?

Culture Transformation: The Interplay of Societal and Technological Evolution
    Society and technology are interdependent. The first tweet was sent in 2006—only 11 years ago. The advent of one-to-many broadcast has fundamentally changed society in that short time. Artificial intelligence is rapidly changing the future of work, as are augmented and mixed reality. There is also a growing digital divide: those who can interpret data vs. those who can't and therefore cannot apply critical judgment to it. Where do engineering and its environmental and societal effects fit into this context? What cultural transformations have we experienced, and what might we expect to see in the near future?

Desert Island Design
    If you had to build something from just materials on hand, how would you design it? We know the challenge of Apollo 13 having a life-or-death problem to solve with just materials on hand. The miners on the Discovery Channel’s “Gold Rush” show another great example of such “field fixes.” But what about constraining DESIGN in the same way? Take a look at the “Mine the Scrap” project at certianmeasures.com. Where might this thinking be most valuable? What would it take to incorporate it into our existing design tools and processes? Where else might we go with “Desert Island Design”?

Feedforward Loops for Design & IoT
    We’re familiar with feedback loops, particularly for control systems. But feedback for control isn’t the right mindset when it comes to the value of IoT and design. The concept of feedforward loops is critical. Feedforward demands that we think ahead about the value of what might be returned via IoT, and how IoT data can inform our product design process. Current tools used for requirements, systems engineering, and conceptual/early-stage product development don’t accommodate the idea or process of feedforward design. How do we change our thinking, tools, and processes to embrace feedforward? What will it take for these up-front capabilities to enable ever-shorter design lifecycles?

Rethinking Complexity
    We are being asked to solve ever-more-complex problems. However, the record of failed projects reminds us that the best big solutions are composed of several small solutions. “Composed” is the key idea. Systems thinking is the key to this composing. How can systems thinking change the way we address complexity? Complex systems without the ability to adapt are prone to failure. With systems thinking, we can begin to address that need. How do we design in that adaptability? Do we have the right tools? What about embracing complexity by re-imagining the systems with biological analogues? What’s the cost of not using this approach? Rather than driving complexity out of our solutions, can we design systems that embrace complexity to address complex problems?

The COFES Institute
    COFES is adapting to the needs of the ever-changing design and engineering software industry. The COFES Institute is a new non-profit entity dedicated to fostering a safe environment where business leaders and technology providers can meet to identify and discuss key decisions and challenges facing the industry. COFES has been donated to the COFES Institute, which now has the responsibility and opportunity to shape the future of COFES and influence the future of our industry. COFES has consistently captured the magic of those transformative hallway conversations that always seems to takes place “while the conference is in session.” The design of the event is to bring together industry thought-leaders, analysts, venders, academics, governments and customers of software for design and engineering, and provide that immersion in the future to bring clarity in the present. This roundtable will explore the role that COFES, and the COFES Institute, play in shaping the design and engineering software tools of tomorrow and the impact they have on the created world. Come help shape the future.

The Intersection of Model-Based Design and System Engineering
    Designs in mechanical engineering, electronics, interconnect, IoT, and software progress from simple simulations to more complex and realistic simulations, to real prototypes. Model-in-the-Loop runs models on emulated hardware. Software-in-the-Loop runs software on emulated hardware. Hardware-in-the-Loop runs software on actual hardware, typically at the prototype stage. At each simulation/emulation stage, X-in-the-Loop emulation requires content from the other domains as a baseline. How are those system configurations managed across those domains? You might have a dynamic 3D model of mechanical hardware, a prototype of a printed-circuit board, a diagram of the product interconnect, a fully functioning cloud-based system for IoT, and a UML model for software. A month later, the latest system configuration could be very different. Managing that configuration, and simulating it, could be tremendously advantageous. How would we go about doing that? What challenges are still unresolved?

What are the Engineering Problems of the Future?
    Drafting and 3D shape-design applications work well. So do FEA and CFD. What are the bottlenecks to developing higher-reliability and lower-cost manufactured products? What are the challenges to producing lower-cost buildings, roads, utilities, and other infrastructure?

12:30
PM


 
Lunch
 
2:00
PM


 
Discussions and Roundtables, Round 2
A second set of long discussions.

Be Resilient or Go Extinct
    Societal, scientific, and economic change are so fast we have difficulty predicting what they will bring. Strange and seemingly distant ideas are upon us before we know it, like the first waves of a hurricane making landfall. Nonetheless, it’s worth thinking about what non-linear shifts might emerge. How will they impact computing, engineering, science, as well as our daily lives? Where can we build in strategies for resilience? Though it seems paradoxical, we should think about how to plan for uncertainty.

Do We Need a Lobbyist?
    Mature industries are typically supported by a lobbying arm. Do we need one? What external issues do we face as a community? What legislation (here and abroad) adversely affects us? We all benefit when the government funds creation of tools to solve previously unmanageable problems. 50 years ago, NASTRAN was a great example of this. But should government be in the business of developing software that directly competes with COTS (commercial off-the-shelf) products? What should it be funding or supporting? What else might a lobbying arm do for the industry of software for design and engineering?

Evolution of the Digital Twin Vision
    The idea of digital twins came from aerospace, where there is a need to understand the wear and tear on each individual plane, and an opportunity to analyze the stress experienced by that specific plane to influence how it should be maintained. Since then, that sharp vision has been applied in other arenas and the definition expanded and morphed. What is the consensus of the vision for digital twins today? Where is it likely to expand in its value and use? What new opportunities are likely to be presented? How might the vision evolve from here?

Generative Design Meets Additive Manufacturing
    What will it take to build into CAD systems the capability to prevent someone from designing something unprintable? The goal for manufacturing-aware design is tools that account for manufacturing constraints for both additive and subtractive techniques. And—ideally—coupled with predictive costing analysis. What happens when we add generative design into the mix? How far upstream should it reach? What about topology optimization tied to generative design? How do these considerations change our tools and how we think about design and engineering?

Handling Massive Streams of IoT Data
    In his COFES 2007 keynote, Bruce Sterling introduced us to the idea of the Internet of Things. Now, 10 years later, IoT is everywhere. At its core are sensors and communications. Sensors are generating ever-increasing amounts of data, and there is great value in it. The challenge we face is one of scale. The amount of data is increasing at a rate much, much greater than the communication bandwidth available to transmit it. We no longer have the ability transmit all the data from where it is collected to where it is consumed. In fact, we no longer have the capacity to store all the incoming data. Where does that leave us? What strategies can we deploy, without losing value?

It’s Not a Green-Field World: Making Current Building Inventory Less Inefficient and More Productive
    As a country, we focus much of our attention on the challenges of energy and sustainability improvements in the automotive sector. But automotive is only a small component of the overall problem—and most vehicles on the road were built within the past 20 years, and therefore were subject to increasingly high standards. The operation of buildings consumes the biggest portion of the energy pie, and has a huge impact on sustainability. And most buildings were built long before we paid much heed to energy or sustainability. New LEED-certified structures are good, but an effective program to reduce energy consumption and pollution MUST focus on addressing existing infrastructure. Perhaps we need a national building census to take stock of the problem, and a carrot/stick approach to addressing the worst offenders first. What’s missing from our toolbox to support this effort?

New Domains for Design and Engineering Tools
    We’ve had some interesting discussions about modeling tools for things like molecules and DNA, things outside of the usual products addressed by CAD. What about R&D for more biologically-oriented products? There’s a strong overlap with our core technologies, but also some interesting “white space.” We know about Autodesk’s work in this space, as well as Dassault System’s BIOVIA. Who else is in this space? How are the lines being blurred? How far are we from a viable market for robust design and engineering tools for the weird and wonderful? Will tools dedicated to these other domains drift back across domains to provide value in the design of things? What questions should we be asking?

The ASSESS Initiative: Facilitating the Engineering Simulation Revolution
    Engineering Simulation is a key to improved competitiveness, through improved understanding of product and process performance. However, leveraging Engineering Simulation as a business asset is tempered by increasing complexity and the high levels of expertise required. What is the role of the ASSESS Initiative? What is the nature of this revolution in Engineering Simulation? What are the drivers behind this revolution? What are the enablers? What are the obstacles? What role do you play in this revolution?

3:45
PM


 
Second Congress: The Business of Design and Engineering
Brad Holtz
Brad Holtz
Cyon Research
  Jim Brown Jim Brown
Tech Clarity
 
This working congress session is an open forum for examining the issues surrounding technologies expected to have an impact on the business of design and engineering. The purpose of these discussions is to examine current issues, explore opportunities for a brighter future, consider approaches, and promote further dialogue. The focus for COFES 2017 will center on two topics.

The first is the theme for COFES 2017: Complexity and Transformation
The second will be the takeaways from the COFES roundtables and briefings.    
5:00
PM
Reception
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
6:00-
9:00
PM


 
Dinner and Awards
Dinner and the closing session of COFES, including The CAD Society Industry Awards.*
 
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event 

Sunday, April 9, 2017


6:30-
8:30
AM


 
Early Riser's Breakfast
For COFES golfers and those with early flights
8:30-
10:30
AM
Sunday Brunch
Sunday Brunch Poolside at the Cafe Cabana

Relax and enjoy the morning!
 
10:30
AM


 
Special Session: Peter Marks
Joel Orr   On Sunday at COFES we invite a special guest to spend the morning with us discussing the ways of the world with those who still have an opportunity to change it—US!

We hope you'll be able to join us.




All COFES Interns will take part as equal participants with the other COFES attendees.  
 
12:30
PM


 
Insights from our Interns
Each year at the end of COFES we sit down with the students who intern at COFES. This engaging and wide-ranging discussion has been incredibly enlightening--perhaps for them, but even more so for us. These next-generation leaders have much to contribute.

All COFES Interns will take part as equal participants with the other COFES attendees.